Simulations as decision support in productive project for rural settlement: a case study in Rosario do Sul – RS

• Autor(a) principal: Meyer, Alexandre Afonso
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Outros Autores: Gomes, Mario Conill
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Produção Online
• Texto Completo: https://www.producaoonline.org.br/rpo/article/view/3025
• topic: Agribusiness. Milk. Monte Carlo. Risk.; Agroindústria. Leite. Monte Carlo. Risco.

The paper analyzes economic and financial risks for rural settlers through the combination of a traditional business analysis and a simulated results analysis, aiming to promote the decision-making decision. The research evaluated an agribusiness, supplied by a milk production system in a rural settlement, introducing deepening elements to the analysis, in the form of simulations. The focus on milk production and processing, as an alternative to a rural settlement, was designed to relate price and activity cost variables. The construction of the simulated model was structured from the Net Present Value (NPV), submitted to simulations by the Monte Carlo method. The simulated variables were accepted by sensitivity analysis, and the results obtained in the model demonstrated the probability of 39.7% for a negative NPV. The evidence shows that economic evaluations of simulated systems can be important tools to support collective investment projects in rural settlements.