Banana sales forecasting model of an agricultural unit, in Ceará, Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Lima, Jaqueline de Jesus
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Oliveira, Mauro Macedo de
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Produção Online
• Texto Completo: https://www.producaoonline.org.br/rpo/article/view/4012
• topic: Demand forecast; Planning and production control; Banana production; Previsão de demanda; Planejamento e controle da produção; Bananicultura

The importance of planning future needs arises from the requirements of decision-making processes, since all businesses are susceptible to unforeseen events and need to be flexible. In the process of carrying out aggregate planning, it is important to know the demand to scale the productive capacity. A forecast study was carried out at a company in Ceará, Brazil, where burro and yellow cavendish bananas are produced on 330 acres. This work is an explanatory and quantitative research, in which historical sales data were initially collected and then their behavior was verified using statistical tests. The burro banana was chosen for its representativeness to the company. Growth trend and seasonality behaviors were identified. After this verification, the ARIMA and Holt-Winters methods were applied for the burro banana in order to identify the method that was best suited. This becomes essential to avoid imbalances between the production and commercial team. The method that presented the best results were ARIMA (1,1,1) with MAD, MAPE and MSD as validation criteria.