Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Guimarães,Raphael Mendonça
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Oliveira,Mariana Passos Ribeiro Pinto Basílio de, Dutra,Viviane Gomes Parreira
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2022000100422
Resumo: ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate excess mortality by cause of death in Brazil and states in 2020. Methods: We estimated the expected number of deaths considering a linear trend analysis with the number of deaths between 2015 and 2019 for each group of causes and each federative unit. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals for each SMR assuming a Poisson distribution. We performed the analyses in the R program, version 4.1.3. Results: We observed a 19% excess in deaths in 2020 (SMR=1.19; 95%CI=1.18–1.20). The Infectious and Parasitic Diseases group stood out among the defined causes (SMR=4.80; 95%CI 4.78–4.82). The ill-defined causes showed great magnitude in this period (SMR=6.08; 95%CI 6.06–6.10). Some groups had lower-than-expected deaths: respiratory diseases (10% lower than expected) and external causes (4% lower than expected). In addition to the global analysis of the country, we identified significant heterogeneity among the federative units. States with the highest SMR are concentrated in the northern region, and those with the lowest SMR are concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions. Conclusion: Excess mortality occurs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This excess results not only from COVID-19 itself, but also from the social response and the management of the health system in responding to a myriad of causes that already had a trend pattern before it.
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spelling Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in BrazilExcess mortalityCause of deathCOVID-19BrazilABSTRACT Objective: To estimate excess mortality by cause of death in Brazil and states in 2020. Methods: We estimated the expected number of deaths considering a linear trend analysis with the number of deaths between 2015 and 2019 for each group of causes and each federative unit. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals for each SMR assuming a Poisson distribution. We performed the analyses in the R program, version 4.1.3. Results: We observed a 19% excess in deaths in 2020 (SMR=1.19; 95%CI=1.18–1.20). The Infectious and Parasitic Diseases group stood out among the defined causes (SMR=4.80; 95%CI 4.78–4.82). The ill-defined causes showed great magnitude in this period (SMR=6.08; 95%CI 6.06–6.10). Some groups had lower-than-expected deaths: respiratory diseases (10% lower than expected) and external causes (4% lower than expected). In addition to the global analysis of the country, we identified significant heterogeneity among the federative units. States with the highest SMR are concentrated in the northern region, and those with the lowest SMR are concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions. Conclusion: Excess mortality occurs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This excess results not only from COVID-19 itself, but also from the social response and the management of the health system in responding to a myriad of causes that already had a trend pattern before it.Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2022000100422Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia v.25 2022reponame:Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO)instacron:ABRASCO10.1590/1980-549720220029info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGuimarães,Raphael MendonçaOliveira,Mariana Passos Ribeiro Pinto Basílio deDutra,Viviane Gomes Parreiraeng2022-10-14T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S1415-790X2022000100422Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/rbepidhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||revbrepi@usp.br1980-54971415-790Xopendoar:2022-10-14T00:00Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
spellingShingle Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
Guimarães,Raphael Mendonça
Excess mortality
Cause of death
COVID-19
Brazil
title_short Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_full Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_fullStr Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
title_sort Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil
author Guimarães,Raphael Mendonça
author_facet Guimarães,Raphael Mendonça
Oliveira,Mariana Passos Ribeiro Pinto Basílio de
Dutra,Viviane Gomes Parreira
author_role author
author2 Oliveira,Mariana Passos Ribeiro Pinto Basílio de
Dutra,Viviane Gomes Parreira
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Guimarães,Raphael Mendonça
Oliveira,Mariana Passos Ribeiro Pinto Basílio de
Dutra,Viviane Gomes Parreira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Excess mortality
Cause of death
COVID-19
Brazil
topic Excess mortality
Cause of death
COVID-19
Brazil
description ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate excess mortality by cause of death in Brazil and states in 2020. Methods: We estimated the expected number of deaths considering a linear trend analysis with the number of deaths between 2015 and 2019 for each group of causes and each federative unit. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals for each SMR assuming a Poisson distribution. We performed the analyses in the R program, version 4.1.3. Results: We observed a 19% excess in deaths in 2020 (SMR=1.19; 95%CI=1.18–1.20). The Infectious and Parasitic Diseases group stood out among the defined causes (SMR=4.80; 95%CI 4.78–4.82). The ill-defined causes showed great magnitude in this period (SMR=6.08; 95%CI 6.06–6.10). Some groups had lower-than-expected deaths: respiratory diseases (10% lower than expected) and external causes (4% lower than expected). In addition to the global analysis of the country, we identified significant heterogeneity among the federative units. States with the highest SMR are concentrated in the northern region, and those with the lowest SMR are concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions. Conclusion: Excess mortality occurs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This excess results not only from COVID-19 itself, but also from the social response and the management of the health system in responding to a myriad of causes that already had a trend pattern before it.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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status_str publishedVersion
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/1980-549720220029
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia v.25 2022
reponame:Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online)
instname:Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO)
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reponame_str Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online)
collection Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista brasileira de epidemiologia (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva (ABRASCO)
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