Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | RBRH (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100232 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT In this research study, the MGB-IPH (acronym for Large Scale Model in Portuguese - Modelo de Grandes Bacias) was used to simulate the propagation of a dam breach hydrograph estimated from predictor equations for the Três Marias Hydropower Dam, considered one of the largest in South America. The results of the peak flow, peak time and flood spot were compared with results of the Hec-Ras 5.06 model, typically used for local-scale dam break studies. As for the extent of the flood, a hit rate of 84% and a median error of 2.1 meters deep, along 4,055 km2 of the flooded area downstream was obtained. Maximum errors of 13% were observed in the prediction of the peak flow and of 20% for the peak time in distant locations up to 526 km downstream from the dam, thus establishing itself within the limits of the typical uncertainties associated with dam break studies. Thus, the potential of using this type of approach in previous studies of large dam failures is explored, configuring this method as an alternative to the use of robust or simplified models for determining downstream areas potentially affected by these disasters. |
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Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impactsLarge scale hydrological modelsDam break simulationInundation boundaryABSTRACT In this research study, the MGB-IPH (acronym for Large Scale Model in Portuguese - Modelo de Grandes Bacias) was used to simulate the propagation of a dam breach hydrograph estimated from predictor equations for the Três Marias Hydropower Dam, considered one of the largest in South America. The results of the peak flow, peak time and flood spot were compared with results of the Hec-Ras 5.06 model, typically used for local-scale dam break studies. As for the extent of the flood, a hit rate of 84% and a median error of 2.1 meters deep, along 4,055 km2 of the flooded area downstream was obtained. Maximum errors of 13% were observed in the prediction of the peak flow and of 20% for the peak time in distant locations up to 526 km downstream from the dam, thus establishing itself within the limits of the typical uncertainties associated with dam break studies. Thus, the potential of using this type of approach in previous studies of large dam failures is explored, configuring this method as an alternative to the use of robust or simplified models for determining downstream areas potentially affected by these disasters.Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100232RBRH v.25 2020reponame:RBRH (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)instacron:ABRH10.1590/2318-0331.252020190128info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTschiedel,Arthur da FontouraPaiva,Rodrigo Cauduro Dias deFan,Fernando Mainardieng2020-08-04T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2318-03312020000100232Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/rbrh/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbrh@abrh.org.br2318-03311414-381Xopendoar:2020-08-04T00:00RBRH (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
title |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
spellingShingle |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts Tschiedel,Arthur da Fontoura Large scale hydrological models Dam break simulation Inundation boundary |
title_short |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
title_full |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
title_fullStr |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
title_sort |
Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts |
author |
Tschiedel,Arthur da Fontoura |
author_facet |
Tschiedel,Arthur da Fontoura Paiva,Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Fan,Fernando Mainardi |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Paiva,Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Fan,Fernando Mainardi |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Tschiedel,Arthur da Fontoura Paiva,Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Fan,Fernando Mainardi |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Large scale hydrological models Dam break simulation Inundation boundary |
topic |
Large scale hydrological models Dam break simulation Inundation boundary |
description |
ABSTRACT In this research study, the MGB-IPH (acronym for Large Scale Model in Portuguese - Modelo de Grandes Bacias) was used to simulate the propagation of a dam breach hydrograph estimated from predictor equations for the Três Marias Hydropower Dam, considered one of the largest in South America. The results of the peak flow, peak time and flood spot were compared with results of the Hec-Ras 5.06 model, typically used for local-scale dam break studies. As for the extent of the flood, a hit rate of 84% and a median error of 2.1 meters deep, along 4,055 km2 of the flooded area downstream was obtained. Maximum errors of 13% were observed in the prediction of the peak flow and of 20% for the peak time in distant locations up to 526 km downstream from the dam, thus establishing itself within the limits of the typical uncertainties associated with dam break studies. Thus, the potential of using this type of approach in previous studies of large dam failures is explored, configuring this method as an alternative to the use of robust or simplified models for determining downstream areas potentially affected by these disasters. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100232 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312020000100232 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/2318-0331.252020190128 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
RBRH v.25 2020 reponame:RBRH (Online) instname:Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH) instacron:ABRH |
instname_str |
Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH) |
instacron_str |
ABRH |
institution |
ABRH |
reponame_str |
RBRH (Online) |
collection |
RBRH (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
RBRH (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (ABRH) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rbrh@abrh.org.br |
_version_ |
1754734701987233792 |