Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Kamakura,Wagner Antonio
Data de Publicação: 2016
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753
Resumo: Abstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections.
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spelling Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Electionspolitical marketingrunoff electionsmulti-party electionsnested-logitunobserved heterogeneityAbstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections.Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração2016-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753Revista de Administração Contemporânea v.20 n.6 2016reponame:RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online)instname:Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)instacron:ANPAD10.1590/1982-7849rac2016160116info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessKamakura,Wagner Antonioeng2016-11-09T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S1415-65552016000600753Revistahttps://rac.anpad.org.br/index.php/racONGhttps://rac.anpad.org.br/index.php/rac/oairac@anpad.org.br1982-78491415-6555opendoar:2016-11-09T00:00RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
title Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
spellingShingle Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
Kamakura,Wagner Antonio
political marketing
runoff elections
multi-party elections
nested-logit
unobserved heterogeneity
title_short Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
title_full Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
title_fullStr Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
title_full_unstemmed Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
title_sort Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
author Kamakura,Wagner Antonio
author_facet Kamakura,Wagner Antonio
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Kamakura,Wagner Antonio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv political marketing
runoff elections
multi-party elections
nested-logit
unobserved heterogeneity
topic political marketing
runoff elections
multi-party elections
nested-logit
unobserved heterogeneity
description Abstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-12-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/1982-7849rac2016160116
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista de Administração Contemporânea v.20 n.6 2016
reponame:RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online)
instname:Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)
instacron:ANPAD
instname_str Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)
instacron_str ANPAD
institution ANPAD
reponame_str RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online)
collection RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv rac@anpad.org.br
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