Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753 |
Resumo: | Abstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections. |
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Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Electionspolitical marketingrunoff electionsmulti-party electionsnested-logitunobserved heterogeneityAbstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections.Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração2016-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753Revista de Administração Contemporânea v.20 n.6 2016reponame:RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online)instname:Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)instacron:ANPAD10.1590/1982-7849rac2016160116info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessKamakura,Wagner Antonioeng2016-11-09T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S1415-65552016000600753Revistahttps://rac.anpad.org.br/index.php/racONGhttps://rac.anpad.org.br/index.php/rac/oairac@anpad.org.br1982-78491415-6555opendoar:2016-11-09T00:00RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
title |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
spellingShingle |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections Kamakura,Wagner Antonio political marketing runoff elections multi-party elections nested-logit unobserved heterogeneity |
title_short |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
title_full |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
title_fullStr |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
title_sort |
Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections |
author |
Kamakura,Wagner Antonio |
author_facet |
Kamakura,Wagner Antonio |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Kamakura,Wagner Antonio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
political marketing runoff elections multi-party elections nested-logit unobserved heterogeneity |
topic |
political marketing runoff elections multi-party elections nested-logit unobserved heterogeneity |
description |
Abstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-65552016000600753 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/1982-7849rac2016160116 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Administração Contemporânea v.20 n.6 2016 reponame:RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) instname:Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD) instacron:ANPAD |
instname_str |
Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD) |
instacron_str |
ANPAD |
institution |
ANPAD |
reponame_str |
RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) |
collection |
RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
RAC. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Online) - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rac@anpad.org.br |
_version_ |
1754209053235478528 |