LEPTOSPIROSIS’S TREND AND SEASONALIT Y IN BRAZIL: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF NOTIFIED CASES BET WEEN 2008 AND 2012

• Autor(a) principal: Pereira, Carlos Alexandre Rodrigues
• Data de Publicação: 2014
• Outros Autores: Barata, Martha Macedo de Lima, Costa Neto, Cristina, Monteiro, Gina Torres Rego
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Saúde e Pesquisa (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.unicesumar.edu.br/index.php/saudpesq/article/view/3604
• topic: Leptospirosis; Epidemiology; Descriptive; Neglected Diseases; Environmental Health; Leptospirosis; Epidemiology; Descriptive; Neglected Diseases; Environmental Health / Doença Negligenciada; Epidemiologia Descritiva; Leptospirose; Saúde Ambiental; .

Leptospirosis is endemic in tropical countries such as Brazil. In order to quantify the cases stemming the trend of this disease in Brazil, free of seasonal variations, we conducted a statistical analysis of the time series of cases reported monthly between January 2008 and December 2012. We conducted periodicity analysis and seasonal decomposition using data reported in SINAN (Notifiable Diseases Information System). We create a graph with the original and the trend-cycle series, through which we make our analyzes and raise some hypotheses. Seasonal variables as the rain really can be associated with leptospirosis, but this disease may occurs independently of the rain and it is possible that the amount of cases could be greater if the search had been continued active throughout the dry season, as can be viewed in the comparative graph. This check is added to the results of previous studies, which warn of danger to be expected that cases of leptospirosis occur only during rainy periods and due to contact with rain or floods, which may decrease the active search for disease in dry periods and may neglect other possibilities of disease transmission.