A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
Texto Completo: | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48243 |
Resumo: | Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia (DECIT) - Secretaria de Ciência e Tecnologia (SCTIE) – Ministério da Saúde (MS), Brazil [25029.000507/2013-07 to V.C.R.], National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health (NIH/NIAID): [U01 AI069923, R01 A1120790, K01 AI131895 to P.F.R, F31 AI152614 to L.S.P, AI077505, AI110527, AI120790, and TR002243 to D.W.H.], and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences [CTSA Award No. TL1 TR002244 to L.S.P.] Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences or the National Institutes of Health. V.C.R., T.S., S.C., M.C.S., M.C.F., D.W.H., F.M.R., A.K., B.D., and B.B.A. report grants U01 AI069923 (CCASAnet; RePORT-Brazil supplement)/R01 AI20790 from NIAID during the conduct of the study. L.P. reports CTSA Award No. TL1 TR002244 - training grant from NCATS and U01 AI069923 (CCASAnet; RePORT-Brazil supplement), R01 AI20790, and F31 AI152614 – fellowship award from NIAID, during the conduct of the study. P.F.R. reports K01 AI131895 (career development award) during the conduct of the study and reports grant R21 AI145686 for registry linkage to improve mortality ascertainment among HIV cohorts in Latin America, and single honorarium for participation in expert panel on HIV care in 2020 from Gilead, outside the submitted work. T.R.S. reports royalties from UpToDate for Chapters on management of TB, outside the submitted work. V.C.R. reports individual payment for conference presentation from Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases and serving on DSMB for Division of AIDS, outside the submitted work. |
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Peetluk, Lauren S.Rebeiro, Peter F.Ridolfi, Felipe M.Andrade, Bruno de BezerrilSantos, Marcelo CordeiroKritski, AfranioDurovni, BetinaCalvacante, SolangeFigueiredo, Marina C.Haas, David W.Liu, DandanRolla, Valeria C.Sterling, Timothy R.Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil network2021-07-15T12:53:04Z2021-07-15T12:53:04Z2021PEETLUK, Lauren S. et al. A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021.https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48243Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia (DECIT) - Secretaria de Ciência e Tecnologia (SCTIE) – Ministério da Saúde (MS), Brazil [25029.000507/2013-07 to V.C.R.], National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health (NIH/NIAID): [U01 AI069923, R01 A1120790, K01 AI131895 to P.F.R, F31 AI152614 to L.S.P, AI077505, AI110527, AI120790, and TR002243 to D.W.H.], and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences [CTSA Award No. TL1 TR002244 to L.S.P.] Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences or the National Institutes of Health. V.C.R., T.S., S.C., M.C.S., M.C.F., D.W.H., F.M.R., A.K., B.D., and B.B.A. report grants U01 AI069923 (CCASAnet; RePORT-Brazil supplement)/R01 AI20790 from NIAID during the conduct of the study. L.P. reports CTSA Award No. TL1 TR002244 - training grant from NCATS and U01 AI069923 (CCASAnet; RePORT-Brazil supplement), R01 AI20790, and F31 AI152614 – fellowship award from NIAID, during the conduct of the study. P.F.R. reports K01 AI131895 (career development award) during the conduct of the study and reports grant R21 AI145686 for registry linkage to improve mortality ascertainment among HIV cohorts in Latin America, and single honorarium for participation in expert panel on HIV care in 2020 from Gilead, outside the submitted work. T.R.S. reports royalties from UpToDate for Chapters on management of TB, outside the submitted work. V.C.R. reports individual payment for conference presentation from Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases and serving on DSMB for Division of AIDS, outside the submitted work.Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine. Division of Epidemiology. Nashville, Tennessee, USA.Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine. Division of Epidemiology. Nashville, Tennessee, USA. / Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Biostatistics. Nashville, TN, USA.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Nashville, TN, USA / Fundação José Silveira. Instituto Brasileiro para Investigação da Tuberculose. Multinational Organization Network Sponsoring Translational and Epidemiological Research Initiative. Salvador, BA, Brazil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Universidade Salvador. Laureate Universities. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Escola Bahiana de Medicina e Saúde Pública. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Faculdade de Tecnologia e Ciências. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Fundação Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado. Manaus, AM, Brasil / Universidade do Estado do Amazonas. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Faculdade de Medicina. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Faculdade de Medicina. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Nashville, TN, USA .Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Nashville, TN, USA / Meharry Medical College. Department of Internal Medicine. Nashville, TN, USA.Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine. Division of Epidemiology. Nashville, Tennessee, USA / Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Biostatistics. Nashville, TN, USA.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Department of Medicine. Division of Epidemiology. Nashville, Tennessee, USA.Despite widespread availability of curative therapy, tuberculosis treatment outcomes remain suboptimal. Clinical prediction models can inform treatment strategies to improve outcomes. Using baseline clinical data, we developed a prediction model for unsuccessful TB treatment outcome and evaluated the incremental value of HIV-related severity and isoniazid acetylator status. Methods: Data originated from the Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis Brazil cohort, which enrolled newly-diagnosed tuberculosis patients in Brazil from 2015-2019. This analysis included participants with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis who started first-line anti-tuberculosis therapy and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The endpoint was unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment: composite of death, treatment failure, regimen switch, incomplete treatment, or not evaluated. Missing predictors were imputed. Predictors were chosen via bootstrapped backward selection. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated with c-statistics and calibration plots, respectively. Bootstrap internal validation estimated overfitting, and a shrinkage factor was applied to improve out-of-sample prediction. Incremental value was evaluated with likelihood ratio-based measures. Results: Of 944 participants, 191 (20%) had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. The final model included seven baseline predictors: hemoglobin, HIV-infection, drug use, diabetes, age, education, and tobacco use. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.80) and was well-calibrated (optimism-corrected intercept and slope: -0.12 and 0.89, Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab598/6313211 by Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) user on 14 July 2021 respectively). HIV-related factors and isoniazid acetylation status did not improve prediction of the final model. Conclusions: The prediction model, using information readily available at treatment initiation, performed well in this population. The findings may guide future work to allocate resources or inform targeted interventions for high-risk patients.engOxford University PressTuberculose pulmonarTerapêuticaPrevisõesPesquisaHIVPulmonary tuberculosisPrognosisPrediction modelEpidemiologic researchHIV coinfectionA clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83097https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/48243/1/license.txt36b51ef91c52b5338d9d29ba0cc807bcMD51ORIGINALPeetluk, Lauren S A clinical....pdfPeetluk, Lauren S A clinical....pdfapplication/pdf1411324https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/48243/2/Peetluk%2c%20Lauren%20S%20A%20clinical....pdf0979a4bf89eba960156762778ede9865MD52TEXTPeetluk, Lauren S A 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
title |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
spellingShingle |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes Peetluk, Lauren S. Tuberculose pulmonar Terapêutica Previsões Pesquisa HIV Pulmonary tuberculosis Prognosis Prediction model Epidemiologic research HIV coinfection |
title_short |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
title_full |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
title_fullStr |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
title_full_unstemmed |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
title_sort |
A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes |
author |
Peetluk, Lauren S. |
author_facet |
Peetluk, Lauren S. Rebeiro, Peter F. Ridolfi, Felipe M. Andrade, Bruno de Bezerril Santos, Marcelo Cordeiro Kritski, Afranio Durovni, Betina Calvacante, Solange Figueiredo, Marina C. Haas, David W. Liu, Dandan Rolla, Valeria C. Sterling, Timothy R. Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil network |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rebeiro, Peter F. Ridolfi, Felipe M. Andrade, Bruno de Bezerril Santos, Marcelo Cordeiro Kritski, Afranio Durovni, Betina Calvacante, Solange Figueiredo, Marina C. Haas, David W. Liu, Dandan Rolla, Valeria C. Sterling, Timothy R. Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil network |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Peetluk, Lauren S. Rebeiro, Peter F. Ridolfi, Felipe M. Andrade, Bruno de Bezerril Santos, Marcelo Cordeiro Kritski, Afranio Durovni, Betina Calvacante, Solange Figueiredo, Marina C. Haas, David W. Liu, Dandan Rolla, Valeria C. Sterling, Timothy R. Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil network |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Tuberculose pulmonar Terapêutica Previsões Pesquisa HIV |
topic |
Tuberculose pulmonar Terapêutica Previsões Pesquisa HIV Pulmonary tuberculosis Prognosis Prediction model Epidemiologic research HIV coinfection |
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Pulmonary tuberculosis Prognosis Prediction model Epidemiologic research HIV coinfection |
description |
Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia (DECIT) - Secretaria de Ciência e Tecnologia (SCTIE) – Ministério da Saúde (MS), Brazil [25029.000507/2013-07 to V.C.R.], National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health (NIH/NIAID): [U01 AI069923, R01 A1120790, K01 AI131895 to P.F.R, F31 AI152614 to L.S.P, AI077505, AI110527, AI120790, and TR002243 to D.W.H.], and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences [CTSA Award No. TL1 TR002244 to L.S.P.] Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences or the National Institutes of Health. V.C.R., T.S., S.C., M.C.S., M.C.F., D.W.H., F.M.R., A.K., B.D., and B.B.A. report grants U01 AI069923 (CCASAnet; RePORT-Brazil supplement)/R01 AI20790 from NIAID during the conduct of the study. L.P. reports CTSA Award No. TL1 TR002244 - training grant from NCATS and U01 AI069923 (CCASAnet; RePORT-Brazil supplement), R01 AI20790, and F31 AI152614 – fellowship award from NIAID, during the conduct of the study. P.F.R. reports K01 AI131895 (career development award) during the conduct of the study and reports grant R21 AI145686 for registry linkage to improve mortality ascertainment among HIV cohorts in Latin America, and single honorarium for participation in expert panel on HIV care in 2020 from Gilead, outside the submitted work. T.R.S. reports royalties from UpToDate for Chapters on management of TB, outside the submitted work. V.C.R. reports individual payment for conference presentation from Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases and serving on DSMB for Division of AIDS, outside the submitted work. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-07-15T12:53:04Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-07-15T12:53:04Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
PEETLUK, Lauren S. et al. A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48243 |
identifier_str_mv |
PEETLUK, Lauren S. et al. A clinical prediction model for unsuccessful pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021. |
url |
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48243 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Oxford University Press |
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Oxford University Press |
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