Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pinotti, Francesco
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Wikramaratna, Paul S., Obolski, Uri, Paton, Robert S., Daminelli, Daniel S. C., Alcantara, Luiz C. J., Giovaneti, Marta, Gupta, Sunetra, Lourenço, José
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/45823
Resumo: University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
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spelling Pinotti, FrancescoWikramaratna, Paul S.Obolski, UriPaton, Robert S.Daminelli, Daniel S. C.Alcantara, Luiz C. J.Giovaneti, MartaGupta, SunetraLourenço, José2021-01-26T14:34:59Z2021-01-26T14:34:59Z2021PINOTTI, Francesco et al. Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19. BMC Medicine, v. 19, n. 19, p. 1-12, 2021.1471-7015https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/4582310.1186/s12916-020-01887-1engBMCCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Coronavírus endêmicasReatividade cruzadaImunopatologiaModelo matemáticoDinâmica de doenças infecciosasModelo individualCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Endemic coronavirusesCross-reactivityImmunopathologyMathematical modelInfectious disease dynamicsIndividual-based modelPotential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleUniversity of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.Independent Consultant. London, England.Tel Aviv University. School of Public Health. Tel Aviv, Israel / Tel Aviv University. Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences. Tel Aviv, Israel.University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pediatria. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil.University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.Background: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions: This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/45823/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALFrancescoPinotti_MartaGiovanetti_etal_IOC_2021.pdfFrancescoPinotti_MartaGiovanetti_etal_IOC_2021.pdfapplication/pdf2021800https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/45823/2/FrancescoPinotti_MartaGiovanetti_etal_IOC_2021.pdf317257d5247aeda864f91ec3d0afc5c9MD52TEXTFrancescoPinotti_MartaGiovanetti_etal_IOC_2021.pdf.txtFrancescoPinotti_MartaGiovanetti_etal_IOC_2021.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
title Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
spellingShingle Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
Pinotti, Francesco
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavírus endêmicas
Reatividade cruzada
Imunopatologia
Modelo matemático
Dinâmica de doenças infecciosas
Modelo individual
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Endemic coronaviruses
Cross-reactivity
Immunopathology
Mathematical model
Infectious disease dynamics
Individual-based model
title_short Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
title_full Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
title_fullStr Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
title_sort Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19
author Pinotti, Francesco
author_facet Pinotti, Francesco
Wikramaratna, Paul S.
Obolski, Uri
Paton, Robert S.
Daminelli, Daniel S. C.
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Giovaneti, Marta
Gupta, Sunetra
Lourenço, José
author_role author
author2 Wikramaratna, Paul S.
Obolski, Uri
Paton, Robert S.
Daminelli, Daniel S. C.
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Giovaneti, Marta
Gupta, Sunetra
Lourenço, José
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pinotti, Francesco
Wikramaratna, Paul S.
Obolski, Uri
Paton, Robert S.
Daminelli, Daniel S. C.
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Giovaneti, Marta
Gupta, Sunetra
Lourenço, José
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavírus endêmicas
Reatividade cruzada
Imunopatologia
Modelo matemático
Dinâmica de doenças infecciosas
Modelo individual
topic COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavírus endêmicas
Reatividade cruzada
Imunopatologia
Modelo matemático
Dinâmica de doenças infecciosas
Modelo individual
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Endemic coronaviruses
Cross-reactivity
Immunopathology
Mathematical model
Infectious disease dynamics
Individual-based model
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Endemic coronaviruses
Cross-reactivity
Immunopathology
Mathematical model
Infectious disease dynamics
Individual-based model
description University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2021-01-26T14:34:59Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2021-01-26T14:34:59Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv PINOTTI, Francesco et al. Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19. BMC Medicine, v. 19, n. 19, p. 1-12, 2021.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/45823
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1471-7015
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1
identifier_str_mv PINOTTI, Francesco et al. Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19. BMC Medicine, v. 19, n. 19, p. 1-12, 2021.
1471-7015
10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/45823
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMC
publisher.none.fl_str_mv BMC
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
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