Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Khandpur, Neha, Gomes, Fabio da Silva
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58116
Resumo: Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Fiocruz Brasília. Brasília, DF, Brasil. Documento produzido em parceria ou por autor vinculado à Fiocruz, mas não consta à informação no documento. Todos os dados de pesquisa utilizados no artigo estão disponível no repositório GitHub (https://github.com/eduardonilson/TFA-CVD-model/tree/main).
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spelling Nilson, Eduardo Augusto FernandesKhandpur, NehaGomes, Fabio da Silva2023-05-02T23:19:36Z2023-05-02T23:19:36Z2022NILSEN, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes; KHANDPUR, Neha; GOMES, Fabio da Silva. Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil. BMC Public Health, [s.l.], v. 10, n. 2010. nov. 2022. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14361-9. Acesso em: 02 maio 2023.1471-2458https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/5811610.1186/s12889-022-14361-9Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Fiocruz Brasília. Brasília, DF, Brasil. Documento produzido em parceria ou por autor vinculado à Fiocruz, mas não consta à informação no documento. Todos os dados de pesquisa utilizados no artigo estão disponível no repositório GitHub (https://github.com/eduardonilson/TFA-CVD-model/tree/main).University of São Paulo. Center for Epidemiological Research in Nutrition and Public Health. São Paulo, SP, Brazil.University of São Paulo. Center for Epidemiological Research in Nutrition and Public Health. São Paulo, SP, Brazil.Pan American Health Organization. Washington, DC, United States.Introduction: The consumption of trans-fatty acids (TFA) is directly associated with cardiovascular disease risk and is responsible for a significant health burden globally. The policy strategies for reducing TFA include limiting their content in foods and eliminating partially hydrogenated oils (PHO) in the market. This study aims to describe a comparative risk assessment macrosimulation model and to apply this tool to estimate the potential reductions in CVD mortality gained from the compared scenarios of TFA reduction/elimination in Brazil. Methodology: We developed and implemented a comparative risk assessment macrosimulation model estimates the potential CVD mortality reduction (coronary heart disease – CHD- and stroke) if TFA intake is reduced in diets. The TFA macrosimulation model estimates the change in the annual number of NCD deaths between baseline with current TFA consumption levels and alternate or counterfactual scenarios, such as considering different limits to TFA content in foods and the elimination of PHO in Brazil in 2018. The model incorporated additional outputs related to other impacts of TFA reduction on DPP, such as Years of Life Lost, Years of Productive Life Lost, and related economic impacts of premature deaths. Results: In 2018, a 2% limit for TFA in the oils and fats and a 5% limit of TFAs for other foods could avert or postpone approximately 2,000 deaths (UI 95% 1,899-2,142) and save US$ 32.1 million savings in productivity losses to the economy associated to premature deaths. An intermediate scenario, applying a 2% limit of TFA in all food products In Brazil could prevent or postpone approximately 6,300 deaths (UI 95% 5,925-6,684) and the premature deaths prevented would represent US$ 100.2 million in economic saving. Finally, by banning PHO, approximately 10,500 deaths could be prevented or postponed (UI 95% 9,963 − 10,909), corresponding to US$ 166.7 million in savings to the economy because of premature deaths. Conclusion: The TFA macrosimulation model can efficiently compare different policy scenarios for trans fats reduction policies at the country level and proves that the elimination of PHOs from the food market in Brazil may significantly reduce the health burden of trans fatty acids in the country compared to other policy options. The model also represents a useful public health tool to support TFA reduction and elimination policies in other countries.engSpringer NatureCardiovascular DiseasesTrans Fatty AcidsFood CompositionFood PolicyTrans fatty acidsCardiovascular diseaseHealth economicsFood policyPublic healthGlobal healthÁcidos Graxos transDoenças CardiovascularesComposição de AlimentosPolítica NutricionalDevelopment and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
title Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
spellingShingle Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Cardiovascular Diseases
Trans Fatty Acids
Food Composition
Food Policy
Trans fatty acids
Cardiovascular disease
Health economics
Food policy
Public health
Global health
Ácidos Graxos trans
Doenças Cardiovasculares
Composição de Alimentos
Política Nutricional
title_short Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
title_full Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
title_fullStr Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
title_sort Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil
author Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
author_facet Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Khandpur, Neha
Gomes, Fabio da Silva
author_role author
author2 Khandpur, Neha
Gomes, Fabio da Silva
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Khandpur, Neha
Gomes, Fabio da Silva
dc.subject.mesh.en_US.fl_str_mv Cardiovascular Diseases
Trans Fatty Acids
Food Composition
Food Policy
topic Cardiovascular Diseases
Trans Fatty Acids
Food Composition
Food Policy
Trans fatty acids
Cardiovascular disease
Health economics
Food policy
Public health
Global health
Ácidos Graxos trans
Doenças Cardiovasculares
Composição de Alimentos
Política Nutricional
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv Trans fatty acids
Cardiovascular disease
Health economics
Food policy
Public health
Global health
dc.subject.decs.en_US.fl_str_mv Ácidos Graxos trans
Doenças Cardiovasculares
Composição de Alimentos
Política Nutricional
description Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Fiocruz Brasília. Brasília, DF, Brasil. Documento produzido em parceria ou por autor vinculado à Fiocruz, mas não consta à informação no documento. Todos os dados de pesquisa utilizados no artigo estão disponível no repositório GitHub (https://github.com/eduardonilson/TFA-CVD-model/tree/main).
publishDate 2022
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-05-02T23:19:36Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-05-02T23:19:36Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv NILSEN, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes; KHANDPUR, Neha; GOMES, Fabio da Silva. Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil. BMC Public Health, [s.l.], v. 10, n. 2010. nov. 2022. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14361-9. Acesso em: 02 maio 2023.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58116
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 1471-2458
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12889-022-14361-9
identifier_str_mv NILSEN, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes; KHANDPUR, Neha; GOMES, Fabio da Silva. Development and application of the TFA macrosimulation model: a case study of modelling the impact of trans fatty acid (TFA) elimination policies in Brazil. BMC Public Health, [s.l.], v. 10, n. 2010. nov. 2022. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14361-9. Acesso em: 02 maio 2023.
1471-2458
10.1186/s12889-022-14361-9
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58116
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
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