Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9 |
| Texto Completo: | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/61274 |
Resumo: | Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Barcelona, Spain. |
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Lowe, RachelBarcellos, ChristovamCoelho, Caio A. S.Bailey, Trevor C.Coelho, Giovanini EvelimGraham, RichardJupp, TimRamalho, Walter MassaCarvalho, Marilia SáStephenson, David B.Carvalho, Xavier RodóStephenson, David B.Rodó, Xavier2023-11-10T15:40:28Z2023-11-10T15:40:28Z2014LOWE, Rachel et al. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. The Lancet infectious diseases, v. 14, n. 7, p. 1-8, 2014.1474-4457https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/6127410.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9engLancet Infect DisDengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecastsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleInstitut Català de Ciències del Clima. Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Barcelona, Spain.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brasil.University of Exeter. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exeter Climate Systems. Exeter, UK.Ministério da Saúde. Coordenação Geral do Programa Nacional de Controle da Dengue. Brasília, DF, Brasil.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter. Devon, UK.University of Exeter. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exeter Climate Systems. Exeter, UK.Universidade de Brasília. Faculdade de Ceilândia. Brasília, DF, Brazil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.University of Exeter. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exeter Climate Systems. Exeter, UK.Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Barcelona, Spain / Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats. Barcelona, Spain.Background With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 diff erent cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12–July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. Methods We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Offi ce, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000–2013, we identifi ed optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. Findings Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (phigh=19%), Fortaleza (phigh=46%), and Natal (phigh=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000–13). Interpretation This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specifi c mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup.DengueWorld CupBrazilSeasonal climate forecastsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZORIGINALartigo.pdfartigo.pdfartigoapplication/pdf2847858https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/61274/2/artigo.pdfdff1d0f4d480277935ae2420a69fdff5MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/61274/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51icict/612742023-11-10 12:40:29.048oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352023-11-10T15:40:29Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false |
| dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| title |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| spellingShingle |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts Lowe, Rachel Dengue World Cup Brazil Seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_short |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_full |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_fullStr |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| title_sort |
Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts |
| author |
Lowe, Rachel |
| author_facet |
Lowe, Rachel Barcellos, Christovam Coelho, Caio A. S. Bailey, Trevor C. Coelho, Giovanini Evelim Graham, Richard Jupp, Tim Ramalho, Walter Massa Carvalho, Marilia Sá Stephenson, David B. Carvalho, Xavier Rodó Rodó, Xavier |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Barcellos, Christovam Coelho, Caio A. S. Bailey, Trevor C. Coelho, Giovanini Evelim Graham, Richard Jupp, Tim Ramalho, Walter Massa Carvalho, Marilia Sá Stephenson, David B. Carvalho, Xavier Rodó Rodó, Xavier |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lowe, Rachel Barcellos, Christovam Coelho, Caio A. S. Bailey, Trevor C. Coelho, Giovanini Evelim Graham, Richard Jupp, Tim Ramalho, Walter Massa Carvalho, Marilia Sá Stephenson, David B. Carvalho, Xavier Rodó Stephenson, David B. Rodó, Xavier |
| dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv |
Dengue World Cup Brazil Seasonal climate forecasts |
| topic |
Dengue World Cup Brazil Seasonal climate forecasts |
| description |
Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Barcelona, Spain. |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2014 |
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2023-11-10T15:40:28Z |
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2023-11-10T15:40:28Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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LOWE, Rachel et al. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. The Lancet infectious diseases, v. 14, n. 7, p. 1-8, 2014. |
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https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/61274 |
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1474-4457 |
| dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9 |
| identifier_str_mv |
LOWE, Rachel et al. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. The Lancet infectious diseases, v. 14, n. 7, p. 1-8, 2014. 1474-4457 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9 |
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Lancet Infect Dis |
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Lancet Infect Dis |
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