Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lowe, Rachel
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: Coelho, Caio AS., Barcellos, Christovam, Carvalho, Marilia Sá, Catão, Rafael De Castro, Coelho, Giovanini E., Ramalho, Walter Massa, Bailey, Trevor C., Stephenson, David B., Rodó, Xavier
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/59887
Resumo: Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Barcelona, Spain.
id CRUZ_87b839a4e818bdb81c2eb5ab4ff75481
oai_identifier_str oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br:icict/59887
network_acronym_str CRUZ
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
repository_id_str 2135
spelling Lowe, RachelCoelho, Caio AS.Barcellos, ChristovamCarvalho, Marilia SáCatão, Rafael De CastroCoelho, Giovanini E.Ramalho, Walter MassaBailey, Trevor C.Stephenson, David B.Rodó, Xavier2023-08-03T12:54:31Z2023-08-03T12:54:31Z2016LOWE, Rachel et al. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil. ELife, v. 5, p. 1-18, 2016.2050-084Xhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/5988710.7554/eLife.11285engeLife Sciences Publicationshttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31339Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleClimate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Barcelona, Spain.Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Barcelona, Spain / Universidade Estadual Paulista. Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia. Presidente Prudente, SP, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Coordenação Geral do Programa Nacional de Controle da Dengue. Brasília, DF, Brasil.Universidade de Brasília. Faculdade de Ceilândia. Brasília, DF, Brasil.University of Exeter. Exeter Climate Systems. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exeter, United Kingdom.University of Exeter. Exeter Climate Systems. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exeter, United Kingdom.Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Barcelona, Spain / Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats. Barcelona, Spain.Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.DengueBrazilDengue riskinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59887/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALva_Lowe_Rachel_etal_ICICT_2016.pdfva_Lowe_Rachel_etal_ICICT_2016.pdfapplication/pdf2907669https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59887/2/va_Lowe_Rachel_etal_ICICT_2016.pdf59e97711a48aa9e28d5fb059b7149865MD52icict/598872023-10-27 14:28:33.061oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352023-10-27T17:28:33Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
title Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
spellingShingle Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
Lowe, Rachel
Dengue
Brazil
Dengue risk
title_short Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
title_full Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
title_fullStr Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
title_sort Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
author Lowe, Rachel
author_facet Lowe, Rachel
Coelho, Caio AS.
Barcellos, Christovam
Carvalho, Marilia Sá
Catão, Rafael De Castro
Coelho, Giovanini E.
Ramalho, Walter Massa
Bailey, Trevor C.
Stephenson, David B.
Rodó, Xavier
author_role author
author2 Coelho, Caio AS.
Barcellos, Christovam
Carvalho, Marilia Sá
Catão, Rafael De Castro
Coelho, Giovanini E.
Ramalho, Walter Massa
Bailey, Trevor C.
Stephenson, David B.
Rodó, Xavier
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lowe, Rachel
Coelho, Caio AS.
Barcellos, Christovam
Carvalho, Marilia Sá
Catão, Rafael De Castro
Coelho, Giovanini E.
Ramalho, Walter Massa
Bailey, Trevor C.
Stephenson, David B.
Rodó, Xavier
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv Dengue
Brazil
Dengue risk
topic Dengue
Brazil
Dengue risk
description Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima. Barcelona, Spain.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2016
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-08-03T12:54:31Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-08-03T12:54:31Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv LOWE, Rachel et al. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil. ELife, v. 5, p. 1-18, 2016.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/59887
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 2050-084X
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.7554/eLife.11285
identifier_str_mv LOWE, Rachel et al. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil. ELife, v. 5, p. 1-18, 2016.
2050-084X
10.7554/eLife.11285
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/59887
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.uri.en_US.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31339
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv eLife Sciences Publications
publisher.none.fl_str_mv eLife Sciences Publications
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59887/1/license.txt
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/59887/2/va_Lowe_Rachel_etal_ICICT_2016.pdf
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58
59e97711a48aa9e28d5fb059b7149865
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio.arca@fiocruz.br
_version_ 1813008984067538944

Registros relacionados