Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Miranda, José Garcia Vivas
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Silva, Mateus Souza, Bertolino, José Gabriel, Vasconcelos, Rodrigo Nogueira, Cambui, Elaine Cristina Barbosa, Araújo, Marcio Luis Valença, Saba, Hugo, Costa, Diego Pereira, Duverger, Soltan Galano, Oliveira, Matheus Teles de, Araújo Neto, Hildebrando Simões de, Rocha, Washington de Jesus Sant’anna Franca, Jorge, Daniel Cardoso Pereira, Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca de, Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva, Rosário, Rafael Silva do
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48628
Resumo: Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
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spelling Miranda, José Garcia VivasSilva, Mateus SouzaBertolino, José GabrielVasconcelos, Rodrigo NogueiraCambui, Elaine Cristina BarbosaAraújo, Marcio Luis ValençaSaba, HugoCosta, Diego PereiraDuverger, Soltan GalanoOliveira, Matheus Teles deAraújo Neto, Hildebrando Simões deRocha, Washington de Jesus Sant’anna FrancaJorge, Daniel Cardoso PereiraOliveira, Juliane Fonseca deAndrade, Roberto Fernandes SilvaRosário, Rafael Silva do2021-08-16T12:31:01Z2021-08-16T12:31:01Z2021MIRANDA, José Garcia Vivas et al. Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow. Physica, D, p. 1-8, 2021.0167-2789https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/4862810.1016/j.physd.2020.132792Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.National Council of Technological and Scientific Development, CNPq, Brazil (grant numbers 310133/2016-5, 307828/2018-2, 431990/2018-2 and 313423/2019-9, 422561/2018-5 and 304257/2019-2). RFSA acknowledges the support of the National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems (INCT-SC Brazil).Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Instituto Federal de Ciência e Tecnologia da Bahia. Santo Amaro, BA, Brasil.Universidade do Estado da Bahia. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Pavilhão de Aulas Raul Seixas. Programa de Pós-graduação em Energia e Ambiente. Salvador, BA, BrasilUniversidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health.Parque Tecnológico da Edf. Tecnocentro. Salvador, BA, Brazil / Universidade do Porto. Centro de Matemática. Lisboa, Portugal.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health.Parque Tecnológico da Edf. Tecnocentro. Salvador, BA, Brazil.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Instituto de Física. Salvador, BA, Brasil.The new Covid-19 pandemic has left traces of suffering and devastation to individuals of almost all countries worldwide and severe impact on the global economy. Understanding the clinical characteristics, interactions with the environment, and the variables that favor or hinder its dissemination help the public authorities in the fight and prevention, leading for a rapid response in society. Using models to estimate contamination scenarios in real time plays an important role. Population compartments models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) for a given region assume two homogeneous premises, the contact mechanisms and diffusion rates, disregarding heterogeneous factors as different contact rates for each municipality and the flow of contaminated people among them. This work considers a hybrid model for covid-19, based on local SIR models and the population flow network among municipalities, responsible for a complex lag dynamic in their contagion curves. Based on actual infection data, local contact rates (β) are evaluated. The epidemic evolution at each municipality depends on the local SIR parameters and on the inter-municipality transport flow. When heterogeneity of β values and flow network are included, forecasts differ from those of the homogeneous ODE model. This effect is more relevant when more municipalities are considered, hinting that the latter overestimates new cases. In addition, mitigation scenarios are assessed to evaluate the effect of earlier interventions reducing the inter-municipality flux. Restricting the flow between municipalities in the initial stage of the epidemic is fundamental for flattening the contamination curve, highlighting advantages of a contamination lag between the capital curve and those of other municipalities in the territories.engElsevierCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2EpidemiasPopulaçãoCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2SIR modelTransport networkScaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flowinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83097https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/48628/1/license.txt36b51ef91c52b5338d9d29ba0cc807bcMD51ORIGINALMiranda, Jose Garacia Vivas Scaling....pdfMiranda, Jose Garacia Vivas 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
title Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
spellingShingle Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
Miranda, José Garcia Vivas
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Epidemias
População
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SIR model
Transport network
title_short Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
title_full Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
title_fullStr Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
title_full_unstemmed Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
title_sort Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow
author Miranda, José Garcia Vivas
author_facet Miranda, José Garcia Vivas
Silva, Mateus Souza
Bertolino, José Gabriel
Vasconcelos, Rodrigo Nogueira
Cambui, Elaine Cristina Barbosa
Araújo, Marcio Luis Valença
Saba, Hugo
Costa, Diego Pereira
Duverger, Soltan Galano
Oliveira, Matheus Teles de
Araújo Neto, Hildebrando Simões de
Rocha, Washington de Jesus Sant’anna Franca
Jorge, Daniel Cardoso Pereira
Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca de
Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva
Rosário, Rafael Silva do
author_role author
author2 Silva, Mateus Souza
Bertolino, José Gabriel
Vasconcelos, Rodrigo Nogueira
Cambui, Elaine Cristina Barbosa
Araújo, Marcio Luis Valença
Saba, Hugo
Costa, Diego Pereira
Duverger, Soltan Galano
Oliveira, Matheus Teles de
Araújo Neto, Hildebrando Simões de
Rocha, Washington de Jesus Sant’anna Franca
Jorge, Daniel Cardoso Pereira
Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca de
Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva
Rosário, Rafael Silva do
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Miranda, José Garcia Vivas
Silva, Mateus Souza
Bertolino, José Gabriel
Vasconcelos, Rodrigo Nogueira
Cambui, Elaine Cristina Barbosa
Araújo, Marcio Luis Valença
Saba, Hugo
Costa, Diego Pereira
Duverger, Soltan Galano
Oliveira, Matheus Teles de
Araújo Neto, Hildebrando Simões de
Rocha, Washington de Jesus Sant’anna Franca
Jorge, Daniel Cardoso Pereira
Oliveira, Juliane Fonseca de
Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva
Rosário, Rafael Silva do
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Epidemias
População
topic COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Epidemias
População
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SIR model
Transport network
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SIR model
Transport network
description Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2021-08-16T12:31:01Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2021-08-16T12:31:01Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv MIRANDA, José Garcia Vivas et al. Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow. Physica, D, p. 1-8, 2021.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48628
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 0167-2789
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132792
identifier_str_mv MIRANDA, José Garcia Vivas et al. Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow. Physica, D, p. 1-8, 2021.
0167-2789
10.1016/j.physd.2020.132792
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/48628
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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