From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Cordeiro, Marli T., Braga, Cynthia, Souza, Wayner V. de, Marques, Ernesto T., Cummings, Derek A. T.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31294
Resumo: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology. Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
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spelling Rodriguez-Barraquer, IsabelCordeiro, Marli T.Braga, CynthiaSouza, Wayner V. deMarques, Ernesto T.Cummings, Derek A. T.2019-01-24T14:11:11Z2019-01-24T14:11:11Z2011RODRIGUEZ-BARRAQUER, Isabel et al. From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 5, n. 1, p. e935, 4 jan. 2011.1935-2735https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3129410.1371/journal.pntd.0000935engFrom re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology. Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Recife, PE, Brasil / Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de Pernambuco. Central Laboratory of Public Health. Recife, PE, Brazil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Recife, PE, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Recife, PE, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Recife, PE, Brasil / University of Pittsburgh. Center for Vaccine Research. Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology. Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.Background: Dengue virus (DENV) was reintroduced into Brazil in 1986 and by 1995 it had spread throughout the country. In 2007 the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases more than doubled and a shift in the age distribution was reported. While previously the majority of DHF cases occurred among adults, in 2007 53% of cases occurred in children under 15 years old. The reasons for this shift have not been determined. Methods and Findings: Age stratified cross-sectional seroepidemiologic survey conducted in Recife, Brazil in 2006. Serostatus was determined by ELISA based detection of Dengue IgG. We estimated time-constant and time-varying forces of infection of DENV between 1986 and 2006. We used discrete-time simulation to estimate the accumulation of monotypic and multitypic immunity over time in a population previously completely susceptible to DENV. We projected the age distribution of population immunity to dengue assuming similar hazards of infection in future years. The overall prevalence of DENV IgG was 0.80 (n = 1427). The time-constant force of infection for the period was estimated to be 0.052 (95% CI 0.041, 0.063), corresponding to 5.2% of susceptible individuals becoming infected each year by each serotype. Simulations show that as time since re-emergence of dengue goes by, multitypic immunity accumulates in adults while an increasing proportion of susceptible individuals and those with monotypic immunity are among young age groups. The median age of those monotypically immune can be expected to shift from 24 years, 10 years after introduction, to 13 years, 50 years after introduction. Of those monotypically immune, the proportion under 15 years old shifts from 27% to 58%. These results are consistent with the dengue notification records from the same region since 1995. Interpretation: Assuming that persons who have been monotypically exposed are at highest risk for severe dengue, the shift towards younger patient ages observed in Brazil can be partially explained by the accumulation of multitypic immunity against DENV-1, 2, and 3 in older age groups, 22 years after the re-introduction of these viruses. Serotype specific seroepidemiologic studies are necessary to accurately estimate the serotype specific forces of infection.AdolescenteAdultoEnvelhecidoIdoso, 80 anos ou maisBrasil / epidemiologiaCriançaCriança, pré-escolarDoenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / epidemiologiaDoenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / imunologiaDengue / epidemiologiaDengue / imunologiaVírus da Dengue / imunologiaDoenças EndêmicasFêmeaHumanosMasculinoMeia idadeAdulto joveminfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83094https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/31294/1/license.txtee3692f7b0b97d5638099ab94397d05fMD51ORIGINALFrom Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil.PDFFrom Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
title From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
spellingShingle From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
Adolescente
Adulto
Envelhecido
Idoso, 80 anos ou mais
Brasil / epidemiologia
Criança
Criança, pré-escolar
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / epidemiologia
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / imunologia
Dengue / epidemiologia
Dengue / imunologia
Vírus da Dengue / imunologia
Doenças Endêmicas
Fêmea
Humanos
Masculino
Meia idade
Adulto jovem
title_short From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
title_full From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
title_fullStr From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
title_sort From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil
author Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
author_facet Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
Cordeiro, Marli T.
Braga, Cynthia
Souza, Wayner V. de
Marques, Ernesto T.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
author_role author
author2 Cordeiro, Marli T.
Braga, Cynthia
Souza, Wayner V. de
Marques, Ernesto T.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
Cordeiro, Marli T.
Braga, Cynthia
Souza, Wayner V. de
Marques, Ernesto T.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
dc.subject.decs.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Adolescente
Adulto
Envelhecido
Idoso, 80 anos ou mais
Brasil / epidemiologia
Criança
Criança, pré-escolar
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / epidemiologia
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / imunologia
Dengue / epidemiologia
Dengue / imunologia
Vírus da Dengue / imunologia
Doenças Endêmicas
Fêmea
Humanos
Masculino
Meia idade
Adulto jovem
topic Adolescente
Adulto
Envelhecido
Idoso, 80 anos ou mais
Brasil / epidemiologia
Criança
Criança, pré-escolar
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / epidemiologia
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes / imunologia
Dengue / epidemiologia
Dengue / imunologia
Vírus da Dengue / imunologia
Doenças Endêmicas
Fêmea
Humanos
Masculino
Meia idade
Adulto jovem
description Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology. Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2011
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2019-01-24T14:11:11Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2019-01-24T14:11:11Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv RODRIGUEZ-BARRAQUER, Isabel et al. From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 5, n. 1, p. e935, 4 jan. 2011.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31294
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1935-2735
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000935
identifier_str_mv RODRIGUEZ-BARRAQUER, Isabel et al. From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 5, n. 1, p. e935, 4 jan. 2011.
1935-2735
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000935
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31294
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
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instacron_str FIOCRUZ
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collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/31294/1/license.txt
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