Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
| Texto Completo: | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/8808 |
Resumo: | Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America |
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Lewnard, Joseph AJirmanus, LaraNery Júnior, NivisonMachado, Paulo RobertoGlesby, Marshall JKo, Albert IcksangCarvalho Filho, Edgar MarcelinoSchriefer, AlbertWeinberger, Daniel M2014-11-12T18:11:24Z2014-11-12T18:11:24Z2014LEWNARD, J. A. et al. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 8, n. 10, p. e3283 , 20141935-2727https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/880810.1371/journal.pntd.0003283engPublic Library of ScienceLeishmaniose cutâneaFlebotomosVetoresTransmissãoEpidemiasSaúde públicaBrasilForecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleYale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of AmericaUniversidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Women’s Hospital. Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology. Brigham and Boston, Massachusetts, United States of AmericaFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, BrasilWeill Cornell Medical College. Division of Infectious Diseases. New York, NY, United States of AmericaYale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of América / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, BrasilUniversidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, BrasilUniversidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, BrasilYale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of AmericaIntroduction: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinelygathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahı´a, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. Significance: These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81914https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/8808/1/license.txt7d48279ffeed55da8dfe2f8e81f3b81fMD51ORIGINALLewnard JA Forecasting....pdfLewnard JA Forecasting....pdfapplication/pdf905924https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/8808/2/Lewnard%20JA%20Forecasting....pdf945aa5aea7857b779582cd0d1fd278ccMD52TEXTLewnard JA Forecasting....pdf.txtLewnard JA Forecasting....pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain55752https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/8808/3/Lewnard%20JA%20Forecasting....pdf.txtcae8ce4503c9933903cf07c07e508c00MD53icict/88082023-03-15 14:33:02.336oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352023-03-15T17:33:02Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false |
| dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| title |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| spellingShingle |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil Lewnard, Joseph A Leishmaniose cutânea Flebotomos Vetores Transmissão Epidemias Saúde pública Brasil |
| title_short |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| title_full |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| title_sort |
Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil |
| author |
Lewnard, Joseph A |
| author_facet |
Lewnard, Joseph A Jirmanus, Lara Nery Júnior, Nivison Machado, Paulo Roberto Glesby, Marshall J Ko, Albert Icksang Carvalho Filho, Edgar Marcelino Schriefer, Albert Weinberger, Daniel M |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Jirmanus, Lara Nery Júnior, Nivison Machado, Paulo Roberto Glesby, Marshall J Ko, Albert Icksang Carvalho Filho, Edgar Marcelino Schriefer, Albert Weinberger, Daniel M |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lewnard, Joseph A Jirmanus, Lara Nery Júnior, Nivison Machado, Paulo Roberto Glesby, Marshall J Ko, Albert Icksang Carvalho Filho, Edgar Marcelino Schriefer, Albert Weinberger, Daniel M |
| dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Leishmaniose cutânea Flebotomos Vetores Transmissão Epidemias Saúde pública Brasil |
| topic |
Leishmaniose cutânea Flebotomos Vetores Transmissão Epidemias Saúde pública Brasil |
| description |
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America |
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2014 |
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2014-11-12T18:11:24Z |
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2014-11-12T18:11:24Z |
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2014 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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LEWNARD, J. A. et al. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 8, n. 10, p. e3283 , 2014 |
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1935-2727 |
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10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 |
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LEWNARD, J. A. et al. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 8, n. 10, p. e3283 , 2014 1935-2727 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 |
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