The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Gianicchi, Beatriz, Ferrari, Gerson, Rezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58117
Resumo: Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Fiocruz Brasília. Brasília, DF, Brasil. Documento produzido em parceria ou por autor vinculado à Fiocruz, mas não consta à informação no documento. Todos os dados de pesquisa usados ​​no artigo estão disponíveis no repositório GitHub (https://github.com/eduardonilson/TFA-CVD-model/tree/main).
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spelling Nilson, Eduardo Augusto FernandesGianicchi, BeatrizFerrari, GersonRezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de2023-05-02T23:53:53Z2023-05-02T23:53:53Z2022NILSON, Eduardo A. F. et al. The projected burden of non‑communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030. Scientific Reports, [s.l.], v. 12, n. 22483, p.1-8, dec. 2022. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26739-1. Acesso em: 02 maio 2023.2045-2322https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58117Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Fiocruz Brasília. Brasília, DF, Brasil. Documento produzido em parceria ou por autor vinculado à Fiocruz, mas não consta à informação no documento. Todos os dados de pesquisa usados ​​no artigo estão disponíveis no repositório GitHub (https://github.com/eduardonilson/TFA-CVD-model/tree/main).University of São Paulo. Center for Epidemiological Research in Nutrition and Public Health. São Paulo, SP, Brazil.Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Escola Paulista de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Preventiva. São Paulo, SP, Brazil.Universidad de Santiago de Chile. Escuela de Ciencias de la Actividad Física, el Deporte y la Salud. Santiago, Chile.Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Escola Paulista de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Preventiva. São Paulo, SP, Brazil.Although studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight and obesity in Brazil, none have estimated its burden in the future. The study aimed to estimate the potential impact of different scenarios of changes in the prevalence of overweight on non‑ communicable diseases (NCD) in the Brazilian adult population until 2030. We developed a multistate life table model including 11 body mass index (BMI) related diseases to estimate attributable NCDs cases and deaths under the following scenarios of changes in overweight over a 10‑year simulation: (1) the continuity of the current trajectory of BMI increases, (2) reducing the rate of increase by half, (3) stopping future BMI increases, and (4) the reduction of the prevalence of overweight by 6.7%. In Brazil, if the current trends of BMI increase are maintained from 2021 to 2030, approximately 5.26 million incident cases and 808.6 thousand deaths from NCDs may occur due to overweight. If the annual increase in overweight was reduced by half until 2030, 1.1% of new NCD cases and 0.2% of deaths could be prevented (respectively, 29,600 cases and 1900 deaths). Alternatively, if the current prevalence of overweight is maintained, as set as a national goal in Brazil until 2030, the incident NCD cases and the deaths could be reduced by respectively 3.3% (92,900) and 1.5% (12,100) compared to continuation of current trends. If the prevalence of overweight is reduced by 6.7% until 2030, 6.5% (182,200) of NCD cases and 4.2% (33,900) of deaths could be prevented. The epidemiologic burden of overweight in Brazil tends to increase if bold policy interventions are not adopted in Brazil.engSpringer NatureNoncommunicable DiseasesObesityOverweightAdultNoncommunicable DiseasesOverweightObesityAdultBrazilDoenças não TransmissíveisObesidadeSobrepesoAdultoBrasilThe projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.en_US.fl_str_mv The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
title The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
spellingShingle The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Noncommunicable Diseases
Obesity
Overweight
Adult
Noncommunicable Diseases
Overweight
Obesity
Adult
Brazil
Doenças não Transmissíveis
Obesidade
Sobrepeso
Adulto
Brasil
title_short The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
title_full The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
title_fullStr The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
title_full_unstemmed The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
title_sort The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030
author Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
author_facet Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Gianicchi, Beatriz
Ferrari, Gerson
Rezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de
author_role author
author2 Gianicchi, Beatriz
Ferrari, Gerson
Rezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nilson, Eduardo Augusto Fernandes
Gianicchi, Beatriz
Ferrari, Gerson
Rezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de
dc.subject.mesh.en_US.fl_str_mv Noncommunicable Diseases
Obesity
Overweight
Adult
topic Noncommunicable Diseases
Obesity
Overweight
Adult
Noncommunicable Diseases
Overweight
Obesity
Adult
Brazil
Doenças não Transmissíveis
Obesidade
Sobrepeso
Adulto
Brasil
dc.subject.en.en_US.fl_str_mv Noncommunicable Diseases
Overweight
Obesity
Adult
Brazil
dc.subject.decs.en_US.fl_str_mv Doenças não Transmissíveis
Obesidade
Sobrepeso
Adulto
Brasil
description Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Fiocruz Brasília. Brasília, DF, Brasil. Documento produzido em parceria ou por autor vinculado à Fiocruz, mas não consta à informação no documento. Todos os dados de pesquisa usados ​​no artigo estão disponíveis no repositório GitHub (https://github.com/eduardonilson/TFA-CVD-model/tree/main).
publishDate 2022
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-05-02T23:53:53Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-05-02T23:53:53Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv NILSON, Eduardo A. F. et al. The projected burden of non‑communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030. Scientific Reports, [s.l.], v. 12, n. 22483, p.1-8, dec. 2022. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26739-1. Acesso em: 02 maio 2023.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58117
dc.identifier.issn.en_US.fl_str_mv 2045-2322
identifier_str_mv NILSON, Eduardo A. F. et al. The projected burden of non‑communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030. Scientific Reports, [s.l.], v. 12, n. 22483, p.1-8, dec. 2022. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26739-1. Acesso em: 02 maio 2023.
2045-2322
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58117
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language eng
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
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