Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
| Texto Completo: | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/26315 |
Resumo: | Universidade de Pernambuco. Recife, PE, Brasil. |
| id |
CRUZ_cc192fc770433b4195d1554793a22456 |
|---|---|
| oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br:icict/26315 |
| network_acronym_str |
CRUZ |
| network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
| repository_id_str |
2135 |
| spelling |
Cortes, FannyMartelli, Celina Maria TurchiXimenes, Ricardo Arraes de AlencarMontarroyos, Ulisses RamosSiqueira Junior, João BoscoCruz, Oswaldo GonçalvesAlexander, NealSouza, Wayner Vieira de2018-05-08T12:13:59Z2018-05-08T12:13:59Z2018CORTES, Fanny; et al. Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities. Acta Tropica, v.182, p.190-197, Mar. 2018.0001-706Xhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/2631510.1016/j.actatropica.2018.03.006engElsevierDengueBrasilAnálise de séries temporaisPrevisãoRegião das AméricasMoclobemidaDengueTime series analysisArimaBrazilForecastingAmerica regionTime series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian citiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleUniversidade de Pernambuco. Recife, PE, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Recife, PE, Brasil.Universidade de Pernambuco. Recife, PE, Brasil / Universidade Federal de Pernambuco. Recife, PE, Brasil.Universidade de Pernambuco. Recife, PE, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Goiás. Goiânia, GO, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. United Kingdom.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Aggeu Magalhães. Recife, PE, Brasil.The aim of the study was to evaluate the temporal patterns of dengue incidence from 2001 to 2014 and forecast for 2015 in two Brazilian cities. We analysed dengue surveillance data (SINAN) from Recife, 1.6 million population, and Goiania, 1.4 million population. We used Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling of monthly notified dengue incidence (2001-2014). Forecasting models (95% prediction interval) were developed to predict numbers of dengue cases for 2015. During the study period, 73,479 dengue cases were reported in Recife varying from 11 cases/100,000 inhab (2004) to 2418 cases/100,000 inhab (2002). In Goiania, 253,008 dengue cases were reported and the yearly incidence varied from 293 cases/100,000 inhab (2004) to 3927 cases/100,000 inhab (2013). Trend was the most important component for Recife, while seasonality was the most important one in Goiania. For Recife, the best fitted model was ARIMA (1,1,3)12 and for Goiania Seasonal ARIMA (1,0,2) (1,1,2)12. The model predicted 4254 dengue cases for Recife in 2015; SINAN registered 35,724 cases. For Goiania the model predicted 33,757 cases for 2015; the reported number of cases by SINAN was 74,095, within the 95% prediction interval. The difference between notified and forecasted dengue cases in Recife can be explained by the co-circulation of dengue and Zika virus in 2015. In this year, all cases with rash were notified as "dengue-like" illness. The ARIMA models may be considered a baseline for the time series analysis of dengue incidence before the Zika epidemic.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/26315/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALoswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdfoswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdfapplication/pdf762453https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/26315/2/oswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdf21292cbacf573da93037cbe596071d0bMD52TEXToswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdf.txtoswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain43983https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/26315/3/oswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdf.txtb57da68cb788199c9962f26e0aa2d811MD53icict/263152018-08-15 02:19:01.671oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br:icict/26315Q0VTU8ODTyBOw4NPIEVYQ0xVU0lWQSBERSBESVJFSVRPUyBBVVRPUkFJUwoKQW8gYWNlaXRhciBvcyBURVJNT1MgZSBDT05EScOHw5VFUyBkZXN0YSBDRVNTw4NPLCBvIEFVVE9SIGUvb3UgVElUVUxBUiBkZSBkaXJlaXRvcwphdXRvcmFpcyBzb2JyZSBhIE9CUkEgZGUgcXVlIHRyYXRhIGVzdGUgZG9jdW1lbnRvOgoKKDEpIENFREUgZSBUUkFOU0ZFUkUsIHRvdGFsIGUgZ3JhdHVpdGFtZW50ZSwgw6AgRklPQ1JVWiAtIEZVTkRBw4fDg08gT1NXQUxETyBDUlVaLCBlbQpjYXLDoXRlciBwZXJtYW5lbnRlLCBpcnJldm9nw6F2ZWwgZSBOw4NPIEVYQ0xVU0lWTywgdG9kb3Mgb3MgZGlyZWl0b3MgcGF0cmltb25pYWlzIE7Dg08KQ09NRVJDSUFJUyBkZSB1dGlsaXphw6fDo28gZGEgT0JSQSBhcnTDrXN0aWNhIGUvb3UgY2llbnTDrWZpY2EgaW5kaWNhZGEgYWNpbWEsIGluY2x1c2l2ZSBvcyBkaXJlaXRvcwpkZSB2b3ogZSBpbWFnZW0gdmluY3VsYWRvcyDDoCBPQlJBLCBkdXJhbnRlIHRvZG8gbyBwcmF6byBkZSBkdXJhw6fDo28gZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzLCBlbQpxdWFscXVlciBpZGlvbWEgZSBlbSB0b2RvcyBvcyBwYcOtc2VzOwoKKDIpIEFDRUlUQSBxdWUgYSBjZXNzw6NvIHRvdGFsIG7Do28gZXhjbHVzaXZhLCBwZXJtYW5lbnRlIGUgaXJyZXZvZ8OhdmVsIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhdXRvcmFpcwpwYXRyaW1vbmlhaXMgbsOjbyBjb21lcmNpYWlzIGRlIHV0aWxpemHDp8OjbyBkZSBxdWUgdHJhdGEgZXN0ZSBkb2N1bWVudG8gaW5jbHVpLCBleGVtcGxpZmljYXRpdmFtZW50ZSwKb3MgZGlyZWl0b3MgZGUgZGlzcG9uaWJpbGl6YcOnw6NvIGUgY29tdW5pY2HDp8OjbyBww7pibGljYSBkYSBPQlJBLCBlbSBxdWFscXVlciBtZWlvIG91IHZlw61jdWxvLAppbmNsdXNpdmUgZW0gUmVwb3NpdMOzcmlvcyBEaWdpdGFpcywgYmVtIGNvbW8gb3MgZGlyZWl0b3MgZGUgcmVwcm9kdcOnw6NvLCBleGliacOnw6NvLCBleGVjdcOnw6NvLApkZWNsYW1hw6fDo28sIHJlY2l0YcOnw6NvLCBleHBvc2nDp8OjbywgYXJxdWl2YW1lbnRvLCBpbmNsdXPDo28gZW0gYmFuY28gZGUgZGFkb3MsIHByZXNlcnZhw6fDo28sIGRpZnVzw6NvLApkaXN0cmlidWnDp8OjbywgZGl2dWxnYcOnw6NvLCBlbXByw6lzdGltbywgdHJhZHXDp8OjbywgZHVibGFnZW0sIGxlZ2VuZGFnZW0sIGluY2x1c8OjbyBlbSBub3ZhcyBvYnJhcyBvdQpjb2xldMOibmVhcywgcmV1dGlsaXphw6fDo28sIGVkacOnw6NvLCBwcm9kdcOnw6NvIGRlIG1hdGVyaWFsIGRpZMOhdGljbyBlIGN1cnNvcyBvdSBxdWFscXVlciBmb3JtYSBkZQp1dGlsaXphw6fDo28gbsOjbyBjb21lcmNpYWw7CgooMykgUkVDT05IRUNFIHF1ZSBhIGNlc3PDo28gYXF1aSBlc3BlY2lmaWNhZGEgY29uY2VkZSDDoCBGSU9DUlVaIC0gRlVOREHDh8ODTyBPU1dBTERPCkNSVVogbyBkaXJlaXRvIGRlIGF1dG9yaXphciBxdWFscXVlciBwZXNzb2Eg4oCTIGbDrXNpY2Egb3UganVyw61kaWNhLCBww7pibGljYSBvdSBwcml2YWRhLCBuYWNpb25hbCBvdQplc3RyYW5nZWlyYSDigJMgYSBhY2Vzc2FyIGUgdXRpbGl6YXIgYW1wbGFtZW50ZSBhIE9CUkEsIHNlbSBleGNsdXNpdmlkYWRlLCBwYXJhIHF1YWlzcXVlcgpmaW5hbGlkYWRlcyBuw6NvIGNvbWVyY2lhaXM7CgooNCkgREVDTEFSQSBxdWUgYSBvYnJhIMOpIGNyaWHDp8OjbyBvcmlnaW5hbCBlIHF1ZSDDqSBvIHRpdHVsYXIgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGFxdWkgY2VkaWRvcyBlIGF1dG9yaXphZG9zLApyZXNwb25zYWJpbGl6YW5kby1zZSBpbnRlZ3JhbG1lbnRlIHBlbG8gY29udGXDumRvIGUgb3V0cm9zIGVsZW1lbnRvcyBxdWUgZmF6ZW0gcGFydGUgZGEgT0JSQSwKaW5jbHVzaXZlIG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGRlIHZveiBlIGltYWdlbSB2aW5jdWxhZG9zIMOgIE9CUkEsIG9icmlnYW5kby1zZSBhIGluZGVuaXphciB0ZXJjZWlyb3MgcG9yCmRhbm9zLCBiZW0gY29tbyBpbmRlbml6YXIgZSByZXNzYXJjaXIgYSBGSU9DUlVaIC0gRlVOREHDh8ODTyBPU1dBTERPIENSVVogZGUKZXZlbnR1YWlzIGRlc3Blc2FzIHF1ZSB2aWVyZW0gYSBzdXBvcnRhciwgZW0gcmF6w6NvIGRlIHF1YWxxdWVyIG9mZW5zYSBhIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIG91CmRpcmVpdG9zIGRlIHZveiBvdSBpbWFnZW0sIHByaW5jaXBhbG1lbnRlIG5vIHF1ZSBkaXogcmVzcGVpdG8gYSBwbMOhZ2lvIGUgdmlvbGHDp8O1ZXMgZGUgZGlyZWl0b3M7CgooNSkgQUZJUk1BIHF1ZSBjb25oZWNlIGEgUG9sw610aWNhIEluc3RpdHVjaW9uYWwgZGUgQWNlc3NvIEFiZXJ0byBkYSBGSU9DUlVaIC0gRlVOREHDh8ODTwpPU1dBTERPIENSVVogZSBhcyBkaXJldHJpemVzIHBhcmEgbyBmdW5jaW9uYW1lbnRvIGRvIHJlcG9zaXTDs3JpbyBpbnN0aXR1Y2lvbmFsIEFSQ0EuCgpBIFBvbMOtdGljYSBJbnN0aXR1Y2lvbmFsIGRlIEFjZXNzbyBBYmVydG8gZGEgRklPQ1JVWiAtIEZVTkRBw4fDg08gT1NXQUxETyBDUlVaIHJlc2VydmEKZXhjbHVzaXZhbWVudGUgYW8gQVVUT1Igb3MgZGlyZWl0b3MgbW9yYWlzIGUgb3MgdXNvcyBjb21lcmNpYWlzIHNvYnJlIGFzIG9icmFzIGRlIHN1YSBhdXRvcmlhCmUvb3UgdGl0dWxhcmlkYWRlLCBzZW5kbyBvcyB0ZXJjZWlyb3MgdXN1w6FyaW9zIHJlc3BvbnPDoXZlaXMgcGVsYSBhdHJpYnVpw6fDo28gZGUgYXV0b3JpYSBlIG1hbnV0ZW7Dp8OjbwpkYSBpbnRlZ3JpZGFkZSBkYSBPQlJBIGVtIHF1YWxxdWVyIHV0aWxpemHDp8Ojby4KCkEgUG9sw610aWNhIEluc3RpdHVjaW9uYWwgZGUgQWNlc3NvIEFiZXJ0byBkYSBGSU9DUlVaIC0gRlVOREHDh8ODTyBPU1dBTERPIENSVVoKcmVzcGVpdGEgb3MgY29udHJhdG9zIGUgYWNvcmRvcyBwcmVleGlzdGVudGVzIGRvcyBBdXRvcmVzIGNvbSB0ZXJjZWlyb3MsIGNhYmVuZG8gYW9zIEF1dG9yZXMKaW5mb3JtYXIgw6AgSW5zdGl0dWnDp8OjbyBhcyBjb25kacOnw7VlcyBlIG91dHJhcyByZXN0cmnDp8O1ZXMgaW1wb3N0YXMgcG9yIGVzdGVzIGluc3RydW1lbnRvcy4KRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352018-08-15T05:19:01Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false |
| dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| title |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| spellingShingle |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities Cortes, Fanny Dengue Brasil Análise de séries temporais Previsão Região das Américas Moclobemida Dengue Time series analysis Arima Brazil Forecasting America region |
| title_short |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| title_full |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| title_fullStr |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| title_sort |
Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities |
| author |
Cortes, Fanny |
| author_facet |
Cortes, Fanny Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes de Alencar Montarroyos, Ulisses Ramos Siqueira Junior, João Bosco Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves Alexander, Neal Souza, Wayner Vieira de |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes de Alencar Montarroyos, Ulisses Ramos Siqueira Junior, João Bosco Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves Alexander, Neal Souza, Wayner Vieira de |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cortes, Fanny Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes de Alencar Montarroyos, Ulisses Ramos Siqueira Junior, João Bosco Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves Alexander, Neal Souza, Wayner Vieira de |
| dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Dengue Brasil Análise de séries temporais Previsão Região das Américas Moclobemida |
| topic |
Dengue Brasil Análise de séries temporais Previsão Região das Américas Moclobemida Dengue Time series analysis Arima Brazil Forecasting America region |
| dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Dengue Time series analysis Arima Brazil Forecasting America region |
| description |
Universidade de Pernambuco. Recife, PE, Brasil. |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-05-08T12:13:59Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2018-05-08T12:13:59Z |
| dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
| dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| format |
article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
| dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
CORTES, Fanny; et al. Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities. Acta Tropica, v.182, p.190-197, Mar. 2018. |
| dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/26315 |
| dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
0001-706X |
| dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.03.006 |
| identifier_str_mv |
CORTES, Fanny; et al. Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two Brazilian cities. Acta Tropica, v.182, p.190-197, Mar. 2018. 0001-706X 10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.03.006 |
| url |
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/26315 |
| dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
| language |
eng |
| dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
| instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
| instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
| institution |
FIOCRUZ |
| reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
| collection |
Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) |
| bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/26315/1/license.txt https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/26315/2/oswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdf https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/26315/3/oswaldoG_cruz_etal_IOC_2018.pdf.txt |
| bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58 21292cbacf573da93037cbe596071d0b b57da68cb788199c9962f26e0aa2d811 |
| bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
repositorio.arca@fiocruz.br |
| _version_ |
1813008897142685696 |