Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carneiro, Isadora C. R.
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Ferreira, Eloiza D., Silva, Janaina C. da, Soares, Guilherme, Strottmann, Daisy Maria, Silveira, Guilherme Ferreira
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/41985
Resumo: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.
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spelling Carneiro, Isadora C. R.Ferreira, Eloiza D.Silva, Janaina C. daSoares, GuilhermeStrottmann, Daisy MariaSilveira, Guilherme Ferreira2020-06-29T20:53:47Z2020-06-29T20:53:47Z2020CARNEIRO, Isadora C. R. et al. Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil. medRxiv, p. 1-21, 2020.https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/4198510.1101/2020.06.28.20141952engLaboratório Cold Spring HarborCOVID-19Infecções por CoronavirusInterpretação Estatística de DadosARIMABiologia ComputacionalEpidemiologiaBrasilCoronavirus InfectionsData Interpretation, StatisticalComputational BiologyEpidemiologyBrazilCOVID-19Infecciones por CoronavirusInterpretación Estadística de DatosBiología ComputacionalEpidemiologíaCOVID-19Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná. Laboratório de Biologia de Tumores. UNIOESTE. Francisco Beltrão, PR.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Curitiba, PR, Brasil. / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Laboratórios de Referência em Viroses Emergentes e Reemergentes. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Laboratório de Virologia Molecular. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses that can cause respiratory, 38 gastrointestinal, hepatic, and neurological diseases. In December 2019, a new 39 highly contagious coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome 40 coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in China. SARS-CoV-2 causes a 41 potentially lethal human respiratory infection, COVID-19, that is associated with 42 fever and cough and can progress to pneumonia and dyspnea in severe cases. 43 Since the virus emerged, it has spread rapidly, reaching all continents around 44 the world. A previous study has shown that, despite being the best alternative in 45 the current pandemic context, social distancing measures alone may not be 46 sufficient to prevent COVID-19 spread, and the overall impact of the virus is of 47 great concern. The present study aims to describe the demographic and 48 socioeconomic characteristics of 672 cities with cases of COVID-19, as well as 49 to determine a predictive model for the number of cases. We analyzed data 50 from cities with at least 1 reported case of COVID-19 until June 26, 2020. It was 51 observed that cities with confirmed cases of the disease are present in all 52 Brazilian states, affecting 36.5% of the municipalities in Rio de Janeiro State. 53 The inhabitants in cities with reported cases of COVID-19 represent more than 54 73.1% of the Brazilian population. Stratifying the age groups of the inhabitants 55 and accounting for the percentage of women and men does not affect COVID56 19 incidence (confirmed cases/100,000 inhabitants). The demographic density, 57 the MHDI and the per capita income of the municipalities with cases of COVID58 19 do not affect disease incidence. In addition, if conditions are maintained, our 59 model predicts 2,358,703 (2,172,930 to 2,544,477) cumulative cases on July 60 25, 2020.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83084https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/41985/1/license.txt783568c2893d2e25a99990b126be1772MD51ORIGINAL2020.06.28.20141952v1.full.pdf2020.06.28.20141952v1.full.pdfapplication/pdf2649523https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/41985/2/2020.06.28.20141952v1.full.pdf0eb9e17d28f7c293834e0d55dae860deMD52TEXT2020.06.28.20141952v1.full.pdf.txt2020.06.28.20141952v1.full.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain49776https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/41985/3/2020.06.28.20141952v1.full.pdf.txt5473487c1ce66c8dc88a97b928e899f9MD53icict/419852020-06-30 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
title Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
spellingShingle Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
Carneiro, Isadora C. R.
COVID-19
Infecções por Coronavirus
Interpretação Estatística de Dados
ARIMA
Biologia Computacional
Epidemiologia
Brasil
Coronavirus Infections
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Computational Biology
Epidemiology
Brazil
COVID-19
Infecciones por Coronavirus
Interpretación Estadística de Datos
Biología Computacional
Epidemiología
COVID-19
title_short Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
title_full Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
title_fullStr Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
title_sort Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil
author Carneiro, Isadora C. R.
author_facet Carneiro, Isadora C. R.
Ferreira, Eloiza D.
Silva, Janaina C. da
Soares, Guilherme
Strottmann, Daisy Maria
Silveira, Guilherme Ferreira
author_role author
author2 Ferreira, Eloiza D.
Silva, Janaina C. da
Soares, Guilherme
Strottmann, Daisy Maria
Silveira, Guilherme Ferreira
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carneiro, Isadora C. R.
Ferreira, Eloiza D.
Silva, Janaina C. da
Soares, Guilherme
Strottmann, Daisy Maria
Silveira, Guilherme Ferreira
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Infecções por Coronavirus
Interpretação Estatística de Dados
ARIMA
Biologia Computacional
Epidemiologia
Brasil
topic COVID-19
Infecções por Coronavirus
Interpretação Estatística de Dados
ARIMA
Biologia Computacional
Epidemiologia
Brasil
Coronavirus Infections
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Computational Biology
Epidemiology
Brazil
COVID-19
Infecciones por Coronavirus
Interpretación Estadística de Datos
Biología Computacional
Epidemiología
COVID-19
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Coronavirus Infections
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Computational Biology
Epidemiology
Brazil
COVID-19
dc.subject.es.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Infecciones por Coronavirus
Interpretación Estadística de Datos
Biología Computacional
Epidemiología
COVID-19
description Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Carlos Chagas. Curitiba, PR, Brasil.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2020-06-29T20:53:47Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2020-06-29T20:53:47Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv CARNEIRO, Isadora C. R. et al. Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil. medRxiv, p. 1-21, 2020.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/41985
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 10.1101/2020.06.28.20141952
identifier_str_mv CARNEIRO, Isadora C. R. et al. Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil. medRxiv, p. 1-21, 2020.
10.1101/2020.06.28.20141952
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/41985
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Laboratório Cold Spring Harbor
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Laboratório Cold Spring Harbor
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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