Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
Texto Completo: | http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1147973 https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828 |
Resumo: | Abstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate. |
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Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.Modelagem agrícolaMudanças climáticasAgricultural modelingRCPsYield gapsOryza SativaRiceClimate changeAbstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate.DIEGO PORTALANZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; FINBARR G. HORGAN, ECOLAVERNA INTEGRAL RESTORATION ECOLOGY, UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DEL MAULE, THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH; VALERIA POHLMANN, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PELOTAS; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; MALENA TORRES-ULLOA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; EDUARDO ALAVA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; SIMONE FERRAZ, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; ANGELICA DURIGON, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA.PORTALANZA, D.HORGAN, F. G.POHLMANN, V.CUADRA, S. V.TORRES-ULLOA, M.ALAVA, E.FERRAZ, S.DURIGON, A.2022-11-03T12:08:34Z2022-11-03T12:08:34Z2022-11-032022info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleAgriculture, v. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022.http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1147973https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)instacron:EMBRAPA2022-11-03T12:08:43Zoai:www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br:doc/1147973Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestopendoar:21542022-11-03T12:08:43falseRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/oai/requestcg-riaa@embrapa.bropendoar:21542022-11-03T12:08:43Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
title |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
spellingShingle |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. PORTALANZA, D. Modelagem agrícola Mudanças climáticas Agricultural modeling RCPs Yield gaps Oryza Sativa Rice Climate change |
title_short |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
title_full |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
title_fullStr |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
title_sort |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
author |
PORTALANZA, D. |
author_facet |
PORTALANZA, D. HORGAN, F. G. POHLMANN, V. CUADRA, S. V. TORRES-ULLOA, M. ALAVA, E. FERRAZ, S. DURIGON, A. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
HORGAN, F. G. POHLMANN, V. CUADRA, S. V. TORRES-ULLOA, M. ALAVA, E. FERRAZ, S. DURIGON, A. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
DIEGO PORTALANZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; FINBARR G. HORGAN, ECOLAVERNA INTEGRAL RESTORATION ECOLOGY, UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DEL MAULE, THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH; VALERIA POHLMANN, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PELOTAS; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; MALENA TORRES-ULLOA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; EDUARDO ALAVA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; SIMONE FERRAZ, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; ANGELICA DURIGON, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA. |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
PORTALANZA, D. HORGAN, F. G. POHLMANN, V. CUADRA, S. V. TORRES-ULLOA, M. ALAVA, E. FERRAZ, S. DURIGON, A. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelagem agrícola Mudanças climáticas Agricultural modeling RCPs Yield gaps Oryza Sativa Rice Climate change |
topic |
Modelagem agrícola Mudanças climáticas Agricultural modeling RCPs Yield gaps Oryza Sativa Rice Climate change |
description |
Abstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-03T12:08:34Z 2022-11-03T12:08:34Z 2022-11-03 2022 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
Agriculture, v. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022. http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1147973 https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828 |
identifier_str_mv |
Agriculture, v. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022. |
url |
http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1147973 https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) instname:Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) instacron:EMBRAPA |
instname_str |
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) |
instacron_str |
EMBRAPA |
institution |
EMBRAPA |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
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Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cg-riaa@embrapa.br |
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1794503533747240960 |