Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.

• Autor(a) principal: PORTALANZA, D.
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Outros Autores: HORGAN, F. G., POHLMANN, V., CUADRA, S. V., TORRES-ULLOA, M., ALAVA, E., FERRAZ, S., DURIGON, A.
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA - Alice)
• Texto Completo: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1147973; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828
• topic: Modelagem agrícola; Mudanças climáticas; Agricultural modeling; RCPs; Yield gaps; Oryza Sativa; Rice; Climate change

Abstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate.