Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
Data de Publicação: 2017
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
por
Título da fonte: BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online)
DOI: 10.15728/bbr.2017.14.2.1
Texto Completo: http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21
Resumo: The aim of this study was to analyze the association of learning and complexity in the target price forecasts and sell-side analysts’ recommendations on the BM&FBovespa. The sample comprised forecasts of 195 stocks, 75 brokers and 569 analysts between 2005 and 2013, analyzed by linear models with panel data. Our results suggest that the experience with the stock, with the sector and complexity of the portfolio confirmed the learn by doing, but the overall experience showed contradictions due to information asymmetry. Despite anchoring in their peers, analysts achieved significant returns, but showed forecasts with low accuracy. Therfore, we concluded that more experienced analysts may intentionally contradict themselves in an attempt to bias the market. Finally, we suggest the development of less biased analyst rankings in order to increase the competitiveness and quality in the results of the analyzes.
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spelling Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side AnalystsAprendizado, Complexidade da Carteira e Assimetria Informacional nas Previsões de Analistas Sell-SideFinancial analystsTarget price forecastStock recommendationsLearningPortfolio complexityAnalistas financeirosPrevisão de preços-alvoRecomendações de açõesAprendizadoComplexidade da carteiraThe aim of this study was to analyze the association of learning and complexity in the target price forecasts and sell-side analysts’ recommendations on the BM&FBovespa. The sample comprised forecasts of 195 stocks, 75 brokers and 569 analysts between 2005 and 2013, analyzed by linear models with panel data. Our results suggest that the experience with the stock, with the sector and complexity of the portfolio confirmed the learn by doing, but the overall experience showed contradictions due to information asymmetry. Despite anchoring in their peers, analysts achieved significant returns, but showed forecasts with low accuracy. Therfore, we concluded that more experienced analysts may intentionally contradict themselves in an attempt to bias the market. Finally, we suggest the development of less biased analyst rankings in order to increase the competitiveness and quality in the results of the analyzes.O objetivo desse trabalho foi analisar a associação do aprendizado e a complexidade nas previsões de preços-alvo e recomendações de analistas sell-side na BM&FBovespa. A amostra compreendeu previsões de 195 ações, 75 corretoras e 569 analistas no período entre 2005 e 2013, analisadas através de modelos lineares com dados em painel. Os resultados apresentaram indícios de que a experiência com o ativo, com o setor e a complexidade da carteira confirmaram o lean by doing, porém a experiência em geral apresentou contradições devido à assimetria informacional. Apesar da ancoragem em seus pares, os analistas obtiveram retornos significativos, mas apresentaram previsões com baixa acurácia. Dessa forma, concluímos que analistas mais experientes podem entrar em contradição de forma intencional na tentativa de viesar o mercado. Por fim, sugerimos a formulação de rankings de analistas menos viesados como forma de aumentar a competitividade e a qualidade nos resultados das análises.FUCAPE Business Shool2017-03-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed ArticleArtigo revisado pelos paresapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/2110.15728/bbr.2017.14.2.1Brazilian Business Review; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2017): March to April 2017; 133-159Brazilian Business Review; v. 14 n. 2 (2017): Março a Abril de 2017; 133-1591808-23861807-734Xreponame:BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online)instname:Fucape Business School (FBS)instacron:FBSengporhttp://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21/25http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21/26Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira deinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2018-10-31T19:03:36Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/21Revistahttps://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/indexONGhttp://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/oai|| bbronline@bbronline.com.br1808-23861808-2386opendoar:2018-10-31T19:03:36BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online) - Fucape Business School (FBS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
Aprendizado, Complexidade da Carteira e Assimetria Informacional nas Previsões de Analistas Sell-Side
title Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
spellingShingle Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
Financial analysts
Target price forecast
Stock recommendations
Learning
Portfolio complexity
Analistas financeiros
Previsão de preços-alvo
Recomendações de ações
Aprendizado
Complexidade da carteira
Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
Financial analysts
Target price forecast
Stock recommendations
Learning
Portfolio complexity
Analistas financeiros
Previsão de preços-alvo
Recomendações de ações
Aprendizado
Complexidade da carteira
title_short Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
title_full Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
title_fullStr Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
title_full_unstemmed Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
title_sort Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts
author Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
author_facet Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lima Junior, Melquiades Pereira de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Financial analysts
Target price forecast
Stock recommendations
Learning
Portfolio complexity
Analistas financeiros
Previsão de preços-alvo
Recomendações de ações
Aprendizado
Complexidade da carteira
topic Financial analysts
Target price forecast
Stock recommendations
Learning
Portfolio complexity
Analistas financeiros
Previsão de preços-alvo
Recomendações de ações
Aprendizado
Complexidade da carteira
description The aim of this study was to analyze the association of learning and complexity in the target price forecasts and sell-side analysts’ recommendations on the BM&FBovespa. The sample comprised forecasts of 195 stocks, 75 brokers and 569 analysts between 2005 and 2013, analyzed by linear models with panel data. Our results suggest that the experience with the stock, with the sector and complexity of the portfolio confirmed the learn by doing, but the overall experience showed contradictions due to information asymmetry. Despite anchoring in their peers, analysts achieved significant returns, but showed forecasts with low accuracy. Therfore, we concluded that more experienced analysts may intentionally contradict themselves in an attempt to bias the market. Finally, we suggest the development of less biased analyst rankings in order to increase the competitiveness and quality in the results of the analyzes.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-03-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
Artigo revisado pelos pares
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21
10.15728/bbr.2017.14.2.1
url http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21
identifier_str_mv 10.15728/bbr.2017.14.2.1
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
por
language eng
por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21/25
http://www.bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/view/21/26
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv FUCAPE Business Shool
publisher.none.fl_str_mv FUCAPE Business Shool
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Brazilian Business Review; Vol. 14 No. 2 (2017): March to April 2017; 133-159
Brazilian Business Review; v. 14 n. 2 (2017): Março a Abril de 2017; 133-159
1808-2386
1807-734X
reponame:BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online)
instname:Fucape Business School (FBS)
instacron:FBS
instname_str Fucape Business School (FBS)
instacron_str FBS
institution FBS
reponame_str BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online)
collection BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv BBR. Brazilian Business Review (English edition. Online) - Fucape Business School (FBS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv || bbronline@bbronline.com.br
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dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.15728/bbr.2017.14.2.1

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