Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Codato, Adriano
Data de Publicação: 2024
Outros Autores: Júnior, Paulo Franz, Sangalli, Amanda, Silva, Rodrigo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/article/view/90129
Resumo: We measured the instability of the Executive branch in Brazil by examining ministerial turnover rates.We designed a model with twelve covariates to determine their impact on minister dismissals and, therefore, on the political instability across different administrations between 1946 and 1964. These variables referred to ministerial profiles, institutional and situational factors, spanning both political and economic dimensions. Our findings, obtained by employing the Cox proportional hazards model, revealed two pivotal factors in explaining the political configuration during this timeframe: a rise in the effective number of parties in the Chamber of Deputies and consistent fluctuations in the number of parties represented in the ministerial cabinet, driven by the necessity to accommodate allies. Political variables associated with regime consolidation,such as the age of democracy, or economic variables, such as the increases in GDP and the decline in inflation rates, were not significant.
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spelling Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964La evaluación y explicación de la inestabilidad de los gabinetes presidenciales en Brasil entre 1946 y 1964Mensurando e explicando a instabilidade dos gabinetes presidenciais no Brasil entre 1946 e 1964presidentialismpolitical coalitionsministerial cabinetspolitical instabilitypresidencialismocoalizões políticasgabinetes ministeriaisinstabilidade políticaWe measured the instability of the Executive branch in Brazil by examining ministerial turnover rates.We designed a model with twelve covariates to determine their impact on minister dismissals and, therefore, on the political instability across different administrations between 1946 and 1964. These variables referred to ministerial profiles, institutional and situational factors, spanning both political and economic dimensions. Our findings, obtained by employing the Cox proportional hazards model, revealed two pivotal factors in explaining the political configuration during this timeframe: a rise in the effective number of parties in the Chamber of Deputies and consistent fluctuations in the number of parties represented in the ministerial cabinet, driven by the necessity to accommodate allies. Political variables associated with regime consolidation,such as the age of democracy, or economic variables, such as the increases in GDP and the decline in inflation rates, were not significant.Evaluamos la inestabilidad del Poder Ejecutivo en Brasil a partir de la tasa de reemplazo ministerial.Desarrollamos un modelo con doce covariables para constatar su posible impacto en la destituciónde ministros y, por tanto, en la inestabilidad política de los diferentes gobiernos entre 1946 y 1964.Estas variables corresponden al perfil de los ministros, a factores institucionales y coyunturales tanto políticos como económicos. Los resultados obtenidos mediante el uso del modelo de riesgos proporcionales de Cox mostraron que dos factores fueron preponderantes para explicar la configuración política de este período: el incremento del número efectivo de partidos en la Cámara de Diputados y la variación constante del número de partidos representados en el gabinete debido a la necesidad de acomodar a los aliados. Las variables políticas vinculadas a la consolidación del régimen, como los años de la democracia, o la variable económica, como el aumento del PIB y la disminución de las tasas de inflación, no resultaron significativas.Mensuramos a instabilidade do poder Executivo no Brasil olhando para a taxa de rotatividade ministerial.Desenvolvemos um modelo com doze covariáveis para verificar se elas impactam na demissão dos ministros e, portanto, na instabilidade política dos diferentes governos entre 1946 e 1964. Essas variáveis se referem ao perfil dos ministros, a fatores institucionais e conjunturais, tanto políticos quanto econômicos. Os resultadosobtidos através do modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox mostraram que dois fatores foram preponderantes para explicar a configuração política desse período: o aumento do número efetivo de partidos na Câmara dos Deputados e a constante variação na quantidade de partidos representados no gabinete dada a necessidade de acomodar aliados. Variáveis políticas ligadas à consolidação do regime, como a idade de existência da democracia, ou econômicas, como o aumento do PIB e a diminuição das taxas de inflação, não foram significativas.Editora FGV2024-02-16info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/article/view/90129Revista Estudos Históricos; Vol. 37 No. 81 (2024): Elites políticas e sociaisRevista Estudos Históricos; v. 37 n. 81 (2024): Elites políticas e sociais2178-14940103-2186reponame:Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVporhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/article/view/90129/85278http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCodato, AdrianoJúnior, Paulo FranzSangalli, AmandaSilva, Rodrigo2024-02-28T12:49:46Zoai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/90129Revistahttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rehONGhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/oai||biblioteca.digital@fgv.br||eh@fgv.br2178-14940103-2186opendoar:2024-03-06T13:02:23.482056Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)true
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
La evaluación y explicación de la inestabilidad de los gabinetes presidenciales en Brasil entre 1946 y 1964
Mensurando e explicando a instabilidade dos gabinetes presidenciais no Brasil entre 1946 e 1964
title Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
spellingShingle Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
Codato, Adriano
presidentialism
political coalitions
ministerial cabinets
political instability
presidencialismo
coalizões políticas
gabinetes ministeriais
instabilidade política
title_short Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
title_full Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
title_fullStr Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
title_full_unstemmed Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
title_sort Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964
author Codato, Adriano
author_facet Codato, Adriano
Júnior, Paulo Franz
Sangalli, Amanda
Silva, Rodrigo
author_role author
author2 Júnior, Paulo Franz
Sangalli, Amanda
Silva, Rodrigo
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Codato, Adriano
Júnior, Paulo Franz
Sangalli, Amanda
Silva, Rodrigo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv presidentialism
political coalitions
ministerial cabinets
political instability
presidencialismo
coalizões políticas
gabinetes ministeriais
instabilidade política
topic presidentialism
political coalitions
ministerial cabinets
political instability
presidencialismo
coalizões políticas
gabinetes ministeriais
instabilidade política
description We measured the instability of the Executive branch in Brazil by examining ministerial turnover rates.We designed a model with twelve covariates to determine their impact on minister dismissals and, therefore, on the political instability across different administrations between 1946 and 1964. These variables referred to ministerial profiles, institutional and situational factors, spanning both political and economic dimensions. Our findings, obtained by employing the Cox proportional hazards model, revealed two pivotal factors in explaining the political configuration during this timeframe: a rise in the effective number of parties in the Chamber of Deputies and consistent fluctuations in the number of parties represented in the ministerial cabinet, driven by the necessity to accommodate allies. Political variables associated with regime consolidation,such as the age of democracy, or economic variables, such as the increases in GDP and the decline in inflation rates, were not significant.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-02-16
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/article/view/90129
url https://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/article/view/90129
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/reh/article/view/90129/85278
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Editora FGV
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Editora FGV
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Estudos Históricos; Vol. 37 No. 81 (2024): Elites políticas e sociais
Revista Estudos Históricos; v. 37 n. 81 (2024): Elites políticas e sociais
2178-1494
0103-2186
reponame:Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro)
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro)
collection Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Estudos Históricos (Rio de Janeiro) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||biblioteca.digital@fgv.br||eh@fgv.br
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