Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2011 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-71402011000200005 |
Resumo: | This paper assesses the performance of the core inflation measures calculated by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The evidence shows that they do not meet some key statistical criteria that a good core inflation measure should have: unbiasedness and the ability to forecast inflation. That performance stems, in part, from the lack of a well-grounded statistical and economical basis underlying them. Three new measures are built and assessed using the same criteria. The evidence shows that although their behaviour is more in accordance to what the theory claims, they still lack the ability to help forecasting inflation. Hence both the BCB and the market should use core inflation cautiously. |
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Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil?Core InflationInflationSupply ShocksRelative PricesVolatilityThis paper assesses the performance of the core inflation measures calculated by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The evidence shows that they do not meet some key statistical criteria that a good core inflation measure should have: unbiasedness and the ability to forecast inflation. That performance stems, in part, from the lack of a well-grounded statistical and economical basis underlying them. Three new measures are built and assessed using the same criteria. The evidence shows that although their behaviour is more in accordance to what the theory claims, they still lack the ability to help forecasting inflation. Hence both the BCB and the market should use core inflation cautiously.Fundação Getúlio Vargas2011-06-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-71402011000200005Revista Brasileira de Economia v.65 n.2 2011reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGV10.1590/S0034-71402011000200005info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva Filho,Tito Nícias Teixeira daFigueiredo,Francisco Marcos Rodrigueseng2011-07-18T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0034-71402011000200005Revistahttp://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rbe/issue/archivehttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rbe@fgv.br1806-91340034-7140opendoar:2011-07-18T00:00Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
title |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
spellingShingle |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? Silva Filho,Tito Nícias Teixeira da Core Inflation Inflation Supply Shocks Relative Prices Volatility |
title_short |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
title_full |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
title_fullStr |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
title_sort |
Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil? |
author |
Silva Filho,Tito Nícias Teixeira da |
author_facet |
Silva Filho,Tito Nícias Teixeira da Figueiredo,Francisco Marcos Rodrigues |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Figueiredo,Francisco Marcos Rodrigues |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva Filho,Tito Nícias Teixeira da Figueiredo,Francisco Marcos Rodrigues |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Core Inflation Inflation Supply Shocks Relative Prices Volatility |
topic |
Core Inflation Inflation Supply Shocks Relative Prices Volatility |
description |
This paper assesses the performance of the core inflation measures calculated by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The evidence shows that they do not meet some key statistical criteria that a good core inflation measure should have: unbiasedness and the ability to forecast inflation. That performance stems, in part, from the lack of a well-grounded statistical and economical basis underlying them. Three new measures are built and assessed using the same criteria. The evidence shows that although their behaviour is more in accordance to what the theory claims, they still lack the ability to help forecasting inflation. Hence both the BCB and the market should use core inflation cautiously. |
publishDate |
2011 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2011-06-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-71402011000200005 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-71402011000200005 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0034-71402011000200005 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Getúlio Vargas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Getúlio Vargas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Economia v.65 n.2 2011 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
collection |
Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rbe@fgv.br |
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1754115905223131136 |