The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/28822 |
Resumo: | Este artigo explora o episódio da liberalização comercial brasileira na década de 1990 para estudar os efeitos de curto e longo prazo das mudanças nas condições econômicas no comportamento dos eleitores. Investigo essa relação comparando os resultados eleitorais das eleições presidenciais de 1989 (antes da liberalização) com os resultados das eleições presidenciais de 1994 a 2014. As regiões que enfrentam maiores reduções tarifárias sofreram uma diminuição permanente na porcentagem de votos para os candidatos de partidos de esquerda. Esse efeito contraria o senso comum de que choques econômicos adversos levariam os eleitores a defenderem políticas tipicamente de esquerda. Investigo os canais que poderiam levar a esse efeito, encontrando apoio empírico para um mecanismo que envolve o enfraquecimento dos sindicatos. Este artigo também mostra que as regiões mais atingidas pelo choque comercial reduziram o número de votos nulos e brancos, e aumentaram o número de votos válidos, indicando que as pessoas nessas regiões se tornaram mais politicamente ativas após o processo de liberalização. |
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Ogeda, Pedro MolinaEscolas::EESPPessoa, João PauloCastro, Rudi Rocha deOrnelas, Emanuel2020-02-20T12:25:48Z2020-02-20T12:25:48Z2020-02-11http://hdl.handle.net/10438/28822Este artigo explora o episódio da liberalização comercial brasileira na década de 1990 para estudar os efeitos de curto e longo prazo das mudanças nas condições econômicas no comportamento dos eleitores. Investigo essa relação comparando os resultados eleitorais das eleições presidenciais de 1989 (antes da liberalização) com os resultados das eleições presidenciais de 1994 a 2014. As regiões que enfrentam maiores reduções tarifárias sofreram uma diminuição permanente na porcentagem de votos para os candidatos de partidos de esquerda. Esse efeito contraria o senso comum de que choques econômicos adversos levariam os eleitores a defenderem políticas tipicamente de esquerda. Investigo os canais que poderiam levar a esse efeito, encontrando apoio empírico para um mecanismo que envolve o enfraquecimento dos sindicatos. Este artigo também mostra que as regiões mais atingidas pelo choque comercial reduziram o número de votos nulos e brancos, e aumentaram o número de votos válidos, indicando que as pessoas nessas regiões se tornaram mais politicamente ativas após o processo de liberalização.This paper exploits the Brazilian trade liberalization episode in the 1990s to study the short- and long-run effects of changes in economic conditions on voters’ behavior. I investigate this relationship by comparing the electoral outcomes of the 1989 presidential election (before the liberalization) with the results of the presidential elections from 1994 to 2014. Regions facing larger tariff reductions experienced a permanent decrease in the share of votes cast for candidates from left-wing parties. This effect runs counter to the conventional wisdom that adverse economic shocks would lead to a leftward shift in voters’ behavior. I investigate the channels that could lead to this effect, finding empirical support for a mechanism involving the weakening of trade unions. This paper also shows that harder-hit regions reduced the number of spoilt ballots and increased the number of voters that cast valid votes, indicating that people in these regions became more politically active after the liberalization process.engElectionsInternational tradeEconomic shocks and electionsEleiçõesComércio internacionalChoques econômicos e eleiçõesEconomiaBrasil - Condições econômicasComércio internacionalEleições - BrasilEleitores - CondutaThe effects of economic shocks on voters' political behaviorinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINALThe Effects of Economic Shocks on Voters' Political Behavior.pdfThe Effects of Economic Shocks on Voters' Political 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|
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
title |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
spellingShingle |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior Ogeda, Pedro Molina Elections International trade Economic shocks and elections Eleições Comércio internacional Choques econômicos e eleições Economia Brasil - Condições econômicas Comércio internacional Eleições - Brasil Eleitores - Conduta |
title_short |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
title_full |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
title_fullStr |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
title_full_unstemmed |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
title_sort |
The effects of economic shocks on voters' political behavior |
author |
Ogeda, Pedro Molina |
author_facet |
Ogeda, Pedro Molina |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Pessoa, João Paulo Castro, Rudi Rocha de |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ogeda, Pedro Molina |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Ornelas, Emanuel |
contributor_str_mv |
Ornelas, Emanuel |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Elections International trade Economic shocks and elections |
topic |
Elections International trade Economic shocks and elections Eleições Comércio internacional Choques econômicos e eleições Economia Brasil - Condições econômicas Comércio internacional Eleições - Brasil Eleitores - Conduta |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Eleições Comércio internacional Choques econômicos e eleições |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Brasil - Condições econômicas Comércio internacional Eleições - Brasil Eleitores - Conduta |
description |
Este artigo explora o episódio da liberalização comercial brasileira na década de 1990 para estudar os efeitos de curto e longo prazo das mudanças nas condições econômicas no comportamento dos eleitores. Investigo essa relação comparando os resultados eleitorais das eleições presidenciais de 1989 (antes da liberalização) com os resultados das eleições presidenciais de 1994 a 2014. As regiões que enfrentam maiores reduções tarifárias sofreram uma diminuição permanente na porcentagem de votos para os candidatos de partidos de esquerda. Esse efeito contraria o senso comum de que choques econômicos adversos levariam os eleitores a defenderem políticas tipicamente de esquerda. Investigo os canais que poderiam levar a esse efeito, encontrando apoio empírico para um mecanismo que envolve o enfraquecimento dos sindicatos. Este artigo também mostra que as regiões mais atingidas pelo choque comercial reduziram o número de votos nulos e brancos, e aumentaram o número de votos válidos, indicando que as pessoas nessas regiões se tornaram mais politicamente ativas após o processo de liberalização. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2020-02-20T12:25:48Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2020-02-20T12:25:48Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020-02-11 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/28822 |
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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