Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Matos Filho, José Coelho
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/25688
Resumo: Este artigo investiga como expansões de crédito impactam a dinâmica do desemprego. Nós estimamos modelos multivariados de séries de tempo (VAR e TVAR (Threshold Vector Autoregression)) para investigar os efeitos da diminuição das restrições de crédito privado sobre as taxas mensais de desemprego no Brasil, entre janeiro de 2002 e dezembro 2015, concluindo que, a expansão de crédito reduziu as taxas de desemprego estrutural, e teve um efeito expressivo sobre a persistência do desemprego durante o período de regime de escassez de crédito. Porém observa-se que a relação entre crédito e desemprego é significantemente diferente em dois regimes. Choques no crédito impactam fortemente e persistentemente quando as firmas se defrontam com um ambiente de restrição de crédito, mas eles são mais fracos e insignificantes no regime de crédito “normal”.
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spelling Matos Filho, José CoelhoTeles, Vladimir KuhlEscolas::EESP2018-11-06T13:42:10Z2018-11-06T13:42:10Z2018-11TD 495http://hdl.handle.net/10438/25688Este artigo investiga como expansões de crédito impactam a dinâmica do desemprego. Nós estimamos modelos multivariados de séries de tempo (VAR e TVAR (Threshold Vector Autoregression)) para investigar os efeitos da diminuição das restrições de crédito privado sobre as taxas mensais de desemprego no Brasil, entre janeiro de 2002 e dezembro 2015, concluindo que, a expansão de crédito reduziu as taxas de desemprego estrutural, e teve um efeito expressivo sobre a persistência do desemprego durante o período de regime de escassez de crédito. Porém observa-se que a relação entre crédito e desemprego é significantemente diferente em dois regimes. Choques no crédito impactam fortemente e persistentemente quando as firmas se defrontam com um ambiente de restrição de crédito, mas eles são mais fracos e insignificantes no regime de crédito “normal”.This article investigates how credit expansions impact the dynamics of unemployment. We estimated multivariate time series models (VAR and TVAR (Threshold Vector Autoregression) to investigate the effects of decreasing private credit constraints on monthly unemployment rates in Brazil between January 2002 and December 2015, concluding that the Credit expansion has reduced structural unemployment rates, but thand also they had an impressive effect on the persistence of unemployment. At the same time it is observed that the relation between credit and unemployment is significantly different in two regimes. Credit shocks impact strongly and persistently when firms are faced with a credit constraint environment, but they are weaker and insignificant in the "normal" credit regime.porFGV EESP - Textos para Discussão; TD 495DesempregoCréditoTVARUnemploymentCreditEconomiaDesemprego - BrasilCrédito bancárioModelos econométricosCrédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVTEXTTD 495 - Coelho_Teles.pdf.txtTD 495 - Coelho_Teles.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain51773https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/e84fa8e2-6de6-47e7-876d-a103c3b46ebe/downloadf5984a94ef2315d23b183341acc107edMD55ORIGINALTD 495 - Coelho_Teles.pdfTD 495 - 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
title Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
spellingShingle Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
Matos Filho, José Coelho
Desemprego
Crédito
TVAR
Unemployment
Credit
Economia
Desemprego - Brasil
Crédito bancário
Modelos econométricos
title_short Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
title_full Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
title_fullStr Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
title_full_unstemmed Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
title_sort Crédito e desemprego no Brasil: 2002 a 2015
author Matos Filho, José Coelho
author_facet Matos Filho, José Coelho
Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
author_role author
author2 Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
author2_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Matos Filho, José Coelho
Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Desemprego
Crédito
TVAR
topic Desemprego
Crédito
TVAR
Unemployment
Credit
Economia
Desemprego - Brasil
Crédito bancário
Modelos econométricos
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Unemployment
Credit
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Desemprego - Brasil
Crédito bancário
Modelos econométricos
description Este artigo investiga como expansões de crédito impactam a dinâmica do desemprego. Nós estimamos modelos multivariados de séries de tempo (VAR e TVAR (Threshold Vector Autoregression)) para investigar os efeitos da diminuição das restrições de crédito privado sobre as taxas mensais de desemprego no Brasil, entre janeiro de 2002 e dezembro 2015, concluindo que, a expansão de crédito reduziu as taxas de desemprego estrutural, e teve um efeito expressivo sobre a persistência do desemprego durante o período de regime de escassez de crédito. Porém observa-se que a relação entre crédito e desemprego é significantemente diferente em dois regimes. Choques no crédito impactam fortemente e persistentemente quando as firmas se defrontam com um ambiente de restrição de crédito, mas eles são mais fracos e insignificantes no regime de crédito “normal”.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2018-11-06T13:42:10Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2018-11-06T13:42:10Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2018-11
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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