Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Mendes, Daniel Lorenzo
Data de Publicação: 2015
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14748
Resumo: In this work, we propose an econometric model specification in the short form, estimating by ordinary least squares (OLS) and based in macroeconomic variables, with the goal of explaining trimestral returns of stock index IBRX-100, between 2001 and 2015. Besides, we tested the forecasting efficiency of the model and concluded that the forecast error estimated in a moving sample, estimating OLS at each round, and utilizing auxiliary VAR to forecast variables, is lower than forecast error associated to the Random Walk hypothesis in the one trimester forward horizon.
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spelling Mendes, Daniel LorenzoEscolas::EPGEFGVGonçalves, Edson Daniel LopesMartins, Bruno SilvaSantos, Rafael Chaves2015-12-17T17:00:17Z2015-12-17T17:00:17Z2015-08-24MENDES, Daniel Lorenzo. Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2015.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14748In this work, we propose an econometric model specification in the short form, estimating by ordinary least squares (OLS) and based in macroeconomic variables, with the goal of explaining trimestral returns of stock index IBRX-100, between 2001 and 2015. Besides, we tested the forecasting efficiency of the model and concluded that the forecast error estimated in a moving sample, estimating OLS at each round, and utilizing auxiliary VAR to forecast variables, is lower than forecast error associated to the Random Walk hypothesis in the one trimester forward horizon.Neste trabalho, propomos uma especificação de modelo econométrico na forma reduzida, estimado por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) e baseado em variáveis macroeconômicas, com o objetivo de explicar os retornos trimestrais do índice de ações IBRX-100, entre 2001 e 2015. Testamos ainda a eficiência preditiva do modelo e concluímos que o erro de previsão estimado em janela móvel, com re-estimação de MQO a cada rodada, e utilização de VAR auxiliar para projeção dos regressores, é significativamente inferior ao erro de previsão associado à hipótese de Random Walk para o horizonte de previsão de um trimestre a frente.porRandom walkVARMínimos quadrados ordináriosModelos macroecônomicosPrevisãoIBRX-100EconomiaMacroeconomia - Modelos econométricosPrevisão econômica - Modelos matemáticosAções (Finanças)Passeio aleatório (Matemática)Risco (Economia)Avaliação de riscosEspecificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINALDissertacao final Daniel Lorenzo Mendes.pdfDissertacao final Daniel Lorenzo 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
title Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
spellingShingle Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
Mendes, Daniel Lorenzo
Random walk
VAR
Mínimos quadrados ordinários
Modelos macroecônomicos
Previsão
IBRX-100
Economia
Macroeconomia - Modelos econométricos
Previsão econômica - Modelos matemáticos
Ações (Finanças)
Passeio aleatório (Matemática)
Risco (Economia)
Avaliação de riscos
title_short Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
title_full Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
title_fullStr Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
title_full_unstemmed Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
title_sort Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100
author Mendes, Daniel Lorenzo
author_facet Mendes, Daniel Lorenzo
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv FGV
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Gonçalves, Edson Daniel Lopes
Martins, Bruno Silva
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Mendes, Daniel Lorenzo
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Santos, Rafael Chaves
contributor_str_mv Santos, Rafael Chaves
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Random walk
VAR
topic Random walk
VAR
Mínimos quadrados ordinários
Modelos macroecônomicos
Previsão
IBRX-100
Economia
Macroeconomia - Modelos econométricos
Previsão econômica - Modelos matemáticos
Ações (Finanças)
Passeio aleatório (Matemática)
Risco (Economia)
Avaliação de riscos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Mínimos quadrados ordinários
Modelos macroecônomicos
Previsão
IBRX-100
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Macroeconomia - Modelos econométricos
Previsão econômica - Modelos matemáticos
Ações (Finanças)
Passeio aleatório (Matemática)
Risco (Economia)
Avaliação de riscos
description In this work, we propose an econometric model specification in the short form, estimating by ordinary least squares (OLS) and based in macroeconomic variables, with the goal of explaining trimestral returns of stock index IBRX-100, between 2001 and 2015. Besides, we tested the forecasting efficiency of the model and concluded that the forecast error estimated in a moving sample, estimating OLS at each round, and utilizing auxiliary VAR to forecast variables, is lower than forecast error associated to the Random Walk hypothesis in the one trimester forward horizon.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2015-12-17T17:00:17Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2015-12-17T17:00:17Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2015-08-24
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv MENDES, Daniel Lorenzo. Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2015.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14748
identifier_str_mv MENDES, Daniel Lorenzo. Especificação de um modelo para explicação e projeção de retornos do IBRX-100. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2015.
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14748
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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institution FGV
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