Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091 |
Resumo: | Brazil is currently undergoing a very strong economic slowdown, and, according to the Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE), Brazil has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014. Given this situation, one of the debates in the Brazilian economy currently is about the reasons for this recent slowdown in Brazilian growth. There is a part that credits this deceleration to external factors; another, to internal factors. Empirical evidence from Matos (2016), through a panel study with a sample of 14 emerging countries, concluded that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. So, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the performance of the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2015, focusing on the Brazilian deceleration post-2010, under three different methods: comparative analysis, panel data and synthetic control. All the methodologies show that Brazil has suffered a strong deceleration of its economy in recent years, especially in the biennium 2014-2015. Moreover, the recent gap of the performance of the Brazilian economy with some comparison groups, which has not occurred in other periods of the past, reinforces the view that this recent loss of pace is largely due to specific factors in our economy. |
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Balassiano, Marcel GrilloEscolas::EPGEFGVPessôa, Samuel de AbreuVeloso, Fernando Augusto AdeodatoMatos, Silvia Maria2017-03-23T14:00:48Z2017-03-23T14:00:48Z2017-02-06BALASSIANO, Marcel Grillo. Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2017.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091Brazil is currently undergoing a very strong economic slowdown, and, according to the Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE), Brazil has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014. Given this situation, one of the debates in the Brazilian economy currently is about the reasons for this recent slowdown in Brazilian growth. There is a part that credits this deceleration to external factors; another, to internal factors. Empirical evidence from Matos (2016), through a panel study with a sample of 14 emerging countries, concluded that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. So, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the performance of the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2015, focusing on the Brazilian deceleration post-2010, under three different methods: comparative analysis, panel data and synthetic control. All the methodologies show that Brazil has suffered a strong deceleration of its economy in recent years, especially in the biennium 2014-2015. Moreover, the recent gap of the performance of the Brazilian economy with some comparison groups, which has not occurred in other periods of the past, reinforces the view that this recent loss of pace is largely due to specific factors in our economy.O Brasil atualmente vem passando por um processo de desaceleração muito forte da sua economia, e, de acordo com o Comitê de Datação de Ciclos Econômicos (CODACE), o Brasil está em recessão desde o segundo trimestre de 2014. Diante desse quadro, um dos debates na economia brasileira atualmente é sobre os motivos dessa desaceleração recente do crescimento brasileiro. Há uma parte que credita essa desaceleração principalmente a fatores externos; outra, a fatores internos. Evidências empíricas de Matos (2016), por meio de um estudo em painel com uma amostra de 14 países emergentes, concluí que apenas 30% da desaceleração brasileira pode ser explicada por fatores externos. Então, o objetivo desta dissertação é analisar o desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015, com foco na desaceleração brasileira pós-2010, sob três métodos diferentes: análise comparativa, dados em painel e controle sintético. Todas as metodologias mostram que o Brasil sofreu uma forte desaceleração da sua economia nos últimos anos, em especial no biênio 2014-2015. Além disso, o descolamento do desempenho da economia brasileira recentemente com alguns grupos de comparação, o que não ocorreu em outros períodos do passado, reforça a visão de que essa perda de ritmo recente decorre, em grande medida, de fatores específicos da nossa economia.porMacroeconomicsBrazilian growthRecessionMacroeconomiaCrescimento brasileiroRecessãoEconomiaMacroeconomiaRecessão (Economia)Brasil - Condições econômicasDesempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVTEXTDissertação_Marcel Grillo Balassiano.pdf.txtDissertação_Marcel Grillo Balassiano.pdf.txtExtracted 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|
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
title |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
spellingShingle |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 Balassiano, Marcel Grillo Macroeconomics Brazilian growth Recession Macroeconomia Crescimento brasileiro Recessão Economia Macroeconomia Recessão (Economia) Brasil - Condições econômicas |
title_short |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
title_full |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
title_fullStr |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
title_sort |
Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010 |
author |
Balassiano, Marcel Grillo |
author_facet |
Balassiano, Marcel Grillo |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu Veloso, Fernando Augusto Adeodato |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Balassiano, Marcel Grillo |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Matos, Silvia Maria |
contributor_str_mv |
Matos, Silvia Maria |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Macroeconomics Brazilian growth Recession |
topic |
Macroeconomics Brazilian growth Recession Macroeconomia Crescimento brasileiro Recessão Economia Macroeconomia Recessão (Economia) Brasil - Condições econômicas |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Macroeconomia Crescimento brasileiro Recessão |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Macroeconomia Recessão (Economia) Brasil - Condições econômicas |
description |
Brazil is currently undergoing a very strong economic slowdown, and, according to the Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE), Brazil has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014. Given this situation, one of the debates in the Brazilian economy currently is about the reasons for this recent slowdown in Brazilian growth. There is a part that credits this deceleration to external factors; another, to internal factors. Empirical evidence from Matos (2016), through a panel study with a sample of 14 emerging countries, concluded that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. So, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the performance of the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2015, focusing on the Brazilian deceleration post-2010, under three different methods: comparative analysis, panel data and synthetic control. All the methodologies show that Brazil has suffered a strong deceleration of its economy in recent years, especially in the biennium 2014-2015. Moreover, the recent gap of the performance of the Brazilian economy with some comparison groups, which has not occurred in other periods of the past, reinforces the view that this recent loss of pace is largely due to specific factors in our economy. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-03-23T14:00:48Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2017-03-23T14:00:48Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2017-02-06 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
BALASSIANO, Marcel Grillo. Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2017. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091 |
identifier_str_mv |
BALASSIANO, Marcel Grillo. Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2017. |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/dc3b8606-b3c0-4ce2-acfb-4497a5a15a16/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/673f8ba9-7ce6-4f05-9617-f8e348c4f69a/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/44dedacc-32e0-4602-b494-244d40af9b26/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/386f6865-cf8b-4732-87cd-0a0de652343d/download |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
114cdf709b800005503b61bfe8d12e8a dfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1 58f0bb7fd102f1bfe7d082cf6d354043 15e6fd0fb1a818f0e9e53f5abec50194 |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1813797871578775552 |