Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Balassiano, Marcel Grillo
Data de Publicação: 2017
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091
Resumo: Brazil is currently undergoing a very strong economic slowdown, and, according to the Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE), Brazil has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014. Given this situation, one of the debates in the Brazilian economy currently is about the reasons for this recent slowdown in Brazilian growth. There is a part that credits this deceleration to external factors; another, to internal factors. Empirical evidence from Matos (2016), through a panel study with a sample of 14 emerging countries, concluded that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. So, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the performance of the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2015, focusing on the Brazilian deceleration post-2010, under three different methods: comparative analysis, panel data and synthetic control. All the methodologies show that Brazil has suffered a strong deceleration of its economy in recent years, especially in the biennium 2014-2015. Moreover, the recent gap of the performance of the Brazilian economy with some comparison groups, which has not occurred in other periods of the past, reinforces the view that this recent loss of pace is largely due to specific factors in our economy.
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spelling Balassiano, Marcel GrilloEscolas::EPGEFGVPessôa, Samuel de AbreuVeloso, Fernando Augusto AdeodatoMatos, Silvia Maria2017-03-23T14:00:48Z2017-03-23T14:00:48Z2017-02-06BALASSIANO, Marcel Grillo. Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2017.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091Brazil is currently undergoing a very strong economic slowdown, and, according to the Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE), Brazil has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014. Given this situation, one of the debates in the Brazilian economy currently is about the reasons for this recent slowdown in Brazilian growth. There is a part that credits this deceleration to external factors; another, to internal factors. Empirical evidence from Matos (2016), through a panel study with a sample of 14 emerging countries, concluded that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. So, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the performance of the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2015, focusing on the Brazilian deceleration post-2010, under three different methods: comparative analysis, panel data and synthetic control. All the methodologies show that Brazil has suffered a strong deceleration of its economy in recent years, especially in the biennium 2014-2015. Moreover, the recent gap of the performance of the Brazilian economy with some comparison groups, which has not occurred in other periods of the past, reinforces the view that this recent loss of pace is largely due to specific factors in our economy.O Brasil atualmente vem passando por um processo de desaceleração muito forte da sua economia, e, de acordo com o Comitê de Datação de Ciclos Econômicos (CODACE), o Brasil está em recessão desde o segundo trimestre de 2014. Diante desse quadro, um dos debates na economia brasileira atualmente é sobre os motivos dessa desaceleração recente do crescimento brasileiro. Há uma parte que credita essa desaceleração principalmente a fatores externos; outra, a fatores internos. Evidências empíricas de Matos (2016), por meio de um estudo em painel com uma amostra de 14 países emergentes, concluí que apenas 30% da desaceleração brasileira pode ser explicada por fatores externos. Então, o objetivo desta dissertação é analisar o desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015, com foco na desaceleração brasileira pós-2010, sob três métodos diferentes: análise comparativa, dados em painel e controle sintético. Todas as metodologias mostram que o Brasil sofreu uma forte desaceleração da sua economia nos últimos anos, em especial no biênio 2014-2015. Além disso, o descolamento do desempenho da economia brasileira recentemente com alguns grupos de comparação, o que não ocorreu em outros períodos do passado, reforça a visão de que essa perda de ritmo recente decorre, em grande medida, de fatores específicos da nossa economia.porMacroeconomicsBrazilian growthRecessionMacroeconomiaCrescimento brasileiroRecessãoEconomiaMacroeconomiaRecessão (Economia)Brasil - Condições econômicasDesempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVTEXTDissertação_Marcel Grillo Balassiano.pdf.txtDissertação_Marcel Grillo Balassiano.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
title Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
spellingShingle Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
Balassiano, Marcel Grillo
Macroeconomics
Brazilian growth
Recession
Macroeconomia
Crescimento brasileiro
Recessão
Economia
Macroeconomia
Recessão (Economia)
Brasil - Condições econômicas
title_short Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
title_full Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
title_fullStr Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
title_full_unstemmed Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
title_sort Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010
author Balassiano, Marcel Grillo
author_facet Balassiano, Marcel Grillo
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv FGV
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu
Veloso, Fernando Augusto Adeodato
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Balassiano, Marcel Grillo
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Matos, Silvia Maria
contributor_str_mv Matos, Silvia Maria
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Macroeconomics
Brazilian growth
Recession
topic Macroeconomics
Brazilian growth
Recession
Macroeconomia
Crescimento brasileiro
Recessão
Economia
Macroeconomia
Recessão (Economia)
Brasil - Condições econômicas
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Macroeconomia
Crescimento brasileiro
Recessão
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Macroeconomia
Recessão (Economia)
Brasil - Condições econômicas
description Brazil is currently undergoing a very strong economic slowdown, and, according to the Economic Cycles Dating Committee (CODACE), Brazil has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014. Given this situation, one of the debates in the Brazilian economy currently is about the reasons for this recent slowdown in Brazilian growth. There is a part that credits this deceleration to external factors; another, to internal factors. Empirical evidence from Matos (2016), through a panel study with a sample of 14 emerging countries, concluded that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. So, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the performance of the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2015, focusing on the Brazilian deceleration post-2010, under three different methods: comparative analysis, panel data and synthetic control. All the methodologies show that Brazil has suffered a strong deceleration of its economy in recent years, especially in the biennium 2014-2015. Moreover, the recent gap of the performance of the Brazilian economy with some comparison groups, which has not occurred in other periods of the past, reinforces the view that this recent loss of pace is largely due to specific factors in our economy.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2017-03-23T14:00:48Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2017-03-23T14:00:48Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017-02-06
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv BALASSIANO, Marcel Grillo. Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2017.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091
identifier_str_mv BALASSIANO, Marcel Grillo. Desempenho da economia brasileira entre 1980 e 2015: uma análise da desaceleração brasileira pós-2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2017.
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/18091
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/44dedacc-32e0-4602-b494-244d40af9b26/download
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/386f6865-cf8b-4732-87cd-0a0de652343d/download
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 114cdf709b800005503b61bfe8d12e8a
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bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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