Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Ribeiro, Renata de Andrade Junqueira
Data de Publicação: 2016
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17131
Resumo: This paper uses an econometric model and identifies the relation between the perception of mining company Vale S.A.’s credit risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS), and earnings surprises, measured by the difference between reported earnings per share (EPS) and EPS expected by market analysts. Conclusion is that a surprise in earning announcement significantly impacts Vale’s CDS and negative surprises tend to have higher influence than positive ones. Results suggest caution upon announcing future goals, since maintaining market expectations at reasonable levels could prevent sudden increases in funding costs.
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spelling Ribeiro, Renata de Andrade JunqueiraEscolas::EPGEFGVGonçalves, Edson Daniel LopesGaglianone, Wagner PiazzaSantos, Rafael ChavesMartins, Bruno Silva2016-09-23T17:12:24Z2016-09-23T17:12:24Z2016-08-29RIBEIRO, Renata de Andrade Junqueira. Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2016.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17131This paper uses an econometric model and identifies the relation between the perception of mining company Vale S.A.’s credit risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS), and earnings surprises, measured by the difference between reported earnings per share (EPS) and EPS expected by market analysts. Conclusion is that a surprise in earning announcement significantly impacts Vale’s CDS and negative surprises tend to have higher influence than positive ones. Results suggest caution upon announcing future goals, since maintaining market expectations at reasonable levels could prevent sudden increases in funding costs.Neste trabalho, é utilizado um modelo econométrico reduzido a fim de identificar a relação entre a percepção de risco de crédito da empresa mineradora Vale S.A., medida pelo Credit Default Swap (CDS), e a surpresa na divulgação de resultado, medida pela diferença entre o lucro por ação divulgado e o esperado pelos analistas de mercado. Conclui-se que uma surpresa no anúncio do resultado influencia significativamente o CDS da Vale e as surpresas negativas têm influência maior que as positivas. Os resultados sugerem cautela no anúncio de metas futuras, uma vez que a manutenção das expectativas de mercado em patamares moderados ajuda a evitar aumentos súbitos no custo de captação.porCredit Default Swap (CDS)Credit riskRisco de créditoVale S.A.Credit Default Swap (CDS)EconomiaDerivativos de créditoCréditos - Avaliação de riscosSwaps (Finanças)Vale (Firma)Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Valeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVTEXTDissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdf.txtDissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain41720https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/340980cc-1b3b-4559-b983-0d05af74feab/downloaddd190eb6d4340d436a6dffb03b9f1e2eMD54ORIGINALDissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdfDissertação - Renata de 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
title Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
spellingShingle Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
Ribeiro, Renata de Andrade Junqueira
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Credit risk
Risco de crédito
Vale S.A.
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Economia
Derivativos de crédito
Créditos - Avaliação de riscos
Swaps (Finanças)
Vale (Firma)
title_short Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
title_full Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
title_fullStr Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
title_full_unstemmed Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
title_sort Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale
author Ribeiro, Renata de Andrade Junqueira
author_facet Ribeiro, Renata de Andrade Junqueira
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv FGV
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Gonçalves, Edson Daniel Lopes
Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza
Santos, Rafael Chaves
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Ribeiro, Renata de Andrade Junqueira
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Martins, Bruno Silva
contributor_str_mv Martins, Bruno Silva
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Credit risk
topic Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Credit risk
Risco de crédito
Vale S.A.
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Economia
Derivativos de crédito
Créditos - Avaliação de riscos
Swaps (Finanças)
Vale (Firma)
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Risco de crédito
Vale S.A.
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Derivativos de crédito
Créditos - Avaliação de riscos
Swaps (Finanças)
Vale (Firma)
description This paper uses an econometric model and identifies the relation between the perception of mining company Vale S.A.’s credit risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS), and earnings surprises, measured by the difference between reported earnings per share (EPS) and EPS expected by market analysts. Conclusion is that a surprise in earning announcement significantly impacts Vale’s CDS and negative surprises tend to have higher influence than positive ones. Results suggest caution upon announcing future goals, since maintaining market expectations at reasonable levels could prevent sudden increases in funding costs.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2016-09-23T17:12:24Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2016-09-23T17:12:24Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2016-08-29
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv RIBEIRO, Renata de Andrade Junqueira. Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2016.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17131
identifier_str_mv RIBEIRO, Renata de Andrade Junqueira. Divulgação de resultados e risco de crédito: o caso Vale. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2016.
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17131
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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