Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
Data de Publicação: 2009
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2180
Resumo: The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.
id FGV_a74c4a3eb2cb31896f952f6789b8719f
oai_identifier_str oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/2180
network_acronym_str FGV
network_name_str Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
repository_id_str 3974
spelling Pereira, Pedro L. VallsEscolas::EESP2009-01-26T12:33:48Z2009-01-26T12:33:48Z2009-01-26http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2180The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.engTextos para discussão - EESP ; 174Multivariate volatility modelsContagionCrise financeiraFinanças - Modelos matemáticosEconomiaEconomiaTesting the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility modelsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALTD 174 Pedro Valls.pdfTD 174 Pedro Valls.pdfapplication/pdf388410https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/7aea2259-1110-4907-9fd4-53dc4e9f07e6/download06b3a214bb35f0afff9c424e3accdf67MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81838https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/fb3bae09-80ff-4e88-8aba-2fa9e7df3ed2/downloada28295ae010d3eaade04c1046331daabMD52TEXTTD 174 Pedro Valls.pdf.txtTD 174 Pedro Valls.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain59695https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/b1ca2b91-0501-4964-b0b8-f00ce4c3a083/downloadd287e9d436139940606d834402e2cc3eMD57THUMBNAILTD 174 Pedro Valls.pdf.jpgTD 174 Pedro Valls.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg3522https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/ea9bfd05-cd2a-4f04-a84d-4fe2e37f92e2/download3afc09e32d0b3779172487e667dcfad3MD5810438/21802023-11-08 00:03:17.842open.accessoai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/2180https://repositorio.fgv.brRepositório InstitucionalPRIhttp://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace-oai/requestopendoar:39742023-11-08T00:03:17Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)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
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
title Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
spellingShingle Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
Multivariate volatility models
Contagion
Crise financeira
Finanças - Modelos matemáticos
Economia
Economia
title_short Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
title_full Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
title_fullStr Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
title_full_unstemmed Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
title_sort Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models
author Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
author_facet Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Multivariate volatility models
Contagion
Crise financeira
Finanças - Modelos matemáticos
topic Multivariate volatility models
Contagion
Crise financeira
Finanças - Modelos matemáticos
Economia
Economia
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Economia
description The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.
publishDate 2009
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2009-01-26T12:33:48Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2009-01-26T12:33:48Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2009-01-26
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2180
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2180
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv Textos para discussão - EESP ; 174
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
collection Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/7aea2259-1110-4907-9fd4-53dc4e9f07e6/download
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/fb3bae09-80ff-4e88-8aba-2fa9e7df3ed2/download
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/b1ca2b91-0501-4964-b0b8-f00ce4c3a083/download
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/ea9bfd05-cd2a-4f04-a84d-4fe2e37f92e2/download
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 06b3a214bb35f0afff9c424e3accdf67
a28295ae010d3eaade04c1046331daab
d287e9d436139940606d834402e2cc3e
3afc09e32d0b3779172487e667dcfad3
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1810024003308355584