Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32895 |
Resumo: | Central Banks have tools to benchmark their decisions over the most common monetary policy channel, the short-term interest rate. One of the most famous tools is the Taylor rule, which is based on a widely known equation that defines the short-term interest rate as a combination of the output gap, the inflation deviation of its target and the natural level of interest. By definition, depending of the macroeconomic context, the Central Banks can create a positive deviation from the natural level of interest to hold inflation to its target, while reducing the economic activity – the opposite is true. A side effect from the changes in the short-term interest rate can be linked to the changes in the long-term rates, specially from the Government bond yield. This study assesses the interest rate deviation (IRD) from its natural level affects the Brazil National Treasury Bills (LTN) yield curve. In other words, how the term structure channel reacts to of short-term monetary policy changes. The Natural Interest Rate (NIR) is estimated in three different approaches and some impulse response functions are done to evaluate how bond yields behavior after a monetary shock. It concludes that the Brazil Central Bank has adopted a conservator administration during the years evaluated, with a short- term interest rate above its natural level. Also, the changes in IRD negatively affect long-term yields, but not significantly. Lastly, this study contributes to the current literature registering a rolling regression window approach for the estimation of the natural interest rate. |
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Azevedo, Fábio da RochaEscolas::EESPMori, RogérioFonseca, MarceloMuinhos, Marcelo Kfoury2022-11-22T15:09:46Z2022-11-22T15:09:46Z2022-11https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32895Central Banks have tools to benchmark their decisions over the most common monetary policy channel, the short-term interest rate. One of the most famous tools is the Taylor rule, which is based on a widely known equation that defines the short-term interest rate as a combination of the output gap, the inflation deviation of its target and the natural level of interest. By definition, depending of the macroeconomic context, the Central Banks can create a positive deviation from the natural level of interest to hold inflation to its target, while reducing the economic activity – the opposite is true. A side effect from the changes in the short-term interest rate can be linked to the changes in the long-term rates, specially from the Government bond yield. This study assesses the interest rate deviation (IRD) from its natural level affects the Brazil National Treasury Bills (LTN) yield curve. In other words, how the term structure channel reacts to of short-term monetary policy changes. The Natural Interest Rate (NIR) is estimated in three different approaches and some impulse response functions are done to evaluate how bond yields behavior after a monetary shock. It concludes that the Brazil Central Bank has adopted a conservator administration during the years evaluated, with a short- term interest rate above its natural level. Also, the changes in IRD negatively affect long-term yields, but not significantly. Lastly, this study contributes to the current literature registering a rolling regression window approach for the estimation of the natural interest rate.Os Bancos Centrais têm ferramentas para orientar suas decisões com sobre o canal mais comum da política monetária, a taxa de juros de curto prazo. A ferramenta mais famosa delas é a regra de Taylor, que se baseia em uma equação amplamente conhecida que define a taxa de juros de curto prazo como uma combinação do hiato do produto, o desvio da inflação de sua meta e a taxa natural de juros. Por definição, dependendo do contexto macroeconômico, os Bancos Centrais podem criar um desvio positivo do nível natural de juros para manter a inflação em sua meta, reduzindo a atividade econômica – o oposto se aplica. Um efeito colateral das mudanças na taxa de juros de curto prazo pode estar ligado às mudanças nas taxas de longo prazo, especialmente do retornos dos títulos do governo. Este estudo avalia como o desvio da taxa de juros (IRD) em relação ao seu nível natural afeta a curva de juros das Letras do Tesouro Nacional (LTN). Em outras palavras, como o canal da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros reage aos efeitos da política monetária de curto-prazo. A Taxa de Juros Natural (NIR) é estimada em três abordagens diferentes e algumas funções de impulse-resposta são feitas para avaliar como os retornos dos títulos se comportam após um choque monetário. Conclui-se que o Banco Central do Brasil adotou uma administração conservadora durante os anos avaliados, com taxa de juros de curto prazo acima do seu nível natural. Além disso, as mudanças no IRD afetam negativamente os retornos de longo prazo, mas de forma não significativa. Por fim, este estudo contribui para a literatura atual registrando uma abordagem de janelas de regressão rolantes para estimar a taxa de juros natural.engNatural interest rateTaylor RuleBrazil Central BankTaxa de juros naturalRegra de TaylorBanco Central do BrasilEconomiaTaxas de jurosTaylor, Regra deBanco Central do BrasilBrasil - Política monetáriaInterest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yieldsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
title |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
spellingShingle |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields Azevedo, Fábio da Rocha Natural interest rate Taylor Rule Brazil Central Bank Taxa de juros natural Regra de Taylor Banco Central do Brasil Economia Taxas de juros Taylor, Regra de Banco Central do Brasil Brasil - Política monetária |
title_short |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
title_full |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
title_fullStr |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
title_sort |
Interest deviation and the Brazilian government bond yields |
author |
Azevedo, Fábio da Rocha |
author_facet |
Azevedo, Fábio da Rocha |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Mori, Rogério Fonseca, Marcelo |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Azevedo, Fábio da Rocha |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury |
contributor_str_mv |
Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Natural interest rate Taylor Rule Brazil Central Bank |
topic |
Natural interest rate Taylor Rule Brazil Central Bank Taxa de juros natural Regra de Taylor Banco Central do Brasil Economia Taxas de juros Taylor, Regra de Banco Central do Brasil Brasil - Política monetária |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Taxa de juros natural Regra de Taylor Banco Central do Brasil |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Taxas de juros Taylor, Regra de Banco Central do Brasil Brasil - Política monetária |
description |
Central Banks have tools to benchmark their decisions over the most common monetary policy channel, the short-term interest rate. One of the most famous tools is the Taylor rule, which is based on a widely known equation that defines the short-term interest rate as a combination of the output gap, the inflation deviation of its target and the natural level of interest. By definition, depending of the macroeconomic context, the Central Banks can create a positive deviation from the natural level of interest to hold inflation to its target, while reducing the economic activity – the opposite is true. A side effect from the changes in the short-term interest rate can be linked to the changes in the long-term rates, specially from the Government bond yield. This study assesses the interest rate deviation (IRD) from its natural level affects the Brazil National Treasury Bills (LTN) yield curve. In other words, how the term structure channel reacts to of short-term monetary policy changes. The Natural Interest Rate (NIR) is estimated in three different approaches and some impulse response functions are done to evaluate how bond yields behavior after a monetary shock. It concludes that the Brazil Central Bank has adopted a conservator administration during the years evaluated, with a short- term interest rate above its natural level. Also, the changes in IRD negatively affect long-term yields, but not significantly. Lastly, this study contributes to the current literature registering a rolling regression window approach for the estimation of the natural interest rate. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-22T15:09:46Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-22T15:09:46Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2022-11 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32895 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32895 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
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collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/d111e5d8-2671-4bca-966d-3f561e8cca63/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/33e22ade-b125-426f-99cc-1a808cb6eaa0/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/fdea6bf5-aa4d-4d97-b4f5-e33f8b87e384/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/9fbc9f11-2273-4a2b-a08b-0d1688433cc7/download |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
dfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1 45c872cf691d90e39016723b53b15ff0 2f17bd73dd3b8dfa07b50aaa6cf81cf8 5da1cffaaa775c9ede90356ede5eee48 |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1802749834699997184 |