Poverty, inequality and income policies: Lula´s real

• Autor(a) principal: Neri, Marcelo Côrtes
• Data de Publicação: 2007
• Tipo de documento: Relatório
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/22965
• topic: Income distribution; Poverty rates; Inequality; Ciência política; Ciências sociais; Economia; Pobreza

The research assessed the evolution in income distribution and in poverty rates, as well as their determinants, with special emphasis on the income policies of the last 15 years. This is the first analytical work to be made in 2007 available since the previous PNAD microdata was released by the IBGE, a week before the release of this research. A work by the The Centre of Social Policies released almost a year before indicated two marked changes in the poverty levels: in the 1993-1995 and 2003-2005 periods, the last of which was called The Second Real. The novelty of this current paper is that the year 2006 not only keeps up with the achievements observed since the worsening in poverty levels in 2003, announced by the CPS, but it also constitutes the best year in the historical series, released until there, of the new PNAD with a fall of 15% in poverty. In 2006, we had a growth in per capita GDP comparable to Haiti's (2,3%) while the growth in per capita household income based on the PNAD was of 9,16%, closer to the Chinese patterns of growth. Looking at the income distribution data, the poorest 50% increased their share of the cake in 12% and the 10% richest in 7.8%. That is, the pie has grown for all, but with more baking powder for the poor. The research reveals how this growth was distributed among the different socio-economic groups, how public policies in the recent period - such as the coverage expansion of the Bolsa-Familia, unsustainable increases in the minimum wage and the labor market recovery- have impacted on different sources of income. A wide database will be made available in a user-friendly website , as well as analyses including series as the new 2006 PNAD about the evolution of social statistics based on income for different population strata, by spatial features (State, metropolitan areas, etc), personal features (schooling, sex, race, etc) and economic features (job, slums, etc). The research analyzes monitors the achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs); presents future scenarios of the social indicators; and unfolds the mechanisms of social cycle transmissions enabled by the income policies attached to the electoral calendar. In 2006, we had a growth in per capita GDP comparable to Haiti's (2,3%) while the growth in per capita household income based on the PNAD was of 9,16%, closer to the Chinese patterns of growth. Looking at the income distribution data, the poorest 50% increased their share of the cake in 12% and the 10% richest in 7.8%. That is, the pie has grown for all, but with more baking powder for the poor. The research reveals how this growth was distributed among the different socio-economic groups, how public policies in the recent period - such as the coverage expansion of the Bolsa-Familia, unsustainable increases in the minimum wage and the labor market recovery- have impacted on different sources of income. A wide database is made available in a user-friendly website , as well as analyses including series as the new 2006 PNAD about the evolution of social statistics based on income for different population strata, by spatial features (State, metropolitan areas, etc), personal features (schooling, sex, race, etc) and economic features (job, slums, etc). The research analyzes monitors the achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs); presents future scenarios of the social indicators; and unfolds the mechanisms of social cycle transmissions enabled by the income policies attached to the electoral calendar. See the research in http://cps.fgv.br/en/research/poverty-inequality-and-income-policies-lulas-real