Demand for trucks in brazil: an econometric approach

• Autor(a) principal: Manfredini, Gonçalves
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Tipo de documento: Artigo de conferência
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27732
• topic: Truck market; Truck demand in Brazil; Truck sales; Commercial cargo vehicles demand; Automotive industry; Automotive market analysis; Multiple linear regression; Econometric model; Expectational variables; Sector-sensitive demand for transportation; Economia; Transporte rodoviário de carga; Modelos econométricos; Caminhão

The demand for trucks in Brazil has historically been an unusual choice for econometric analysis, resulting in a scarcity of studies on this subject, inconsistent with the economic relevance of road freight transport and its historical dominance over any other means of transport in the country. This paper addresses the demand for trucks in Brazil, making extensive use of secondary data in multiple linear regression models. Besides the choice of the subject itself, it innovates by including expectational variables to the analysis. In comparison to the surveyed studies on passenger car demand, further improvements were undertaken, as the split of GDP in sectors (agriculture, industry and services), the use of lagged variables, and a nineteen years long timeframe (from 1996 to 2015). The results deepen the knowledge about the truck market behaviour and allow an improvement of the quality of decision making in the truck industry.