Descumprimento das metas, expectativas inflacionárias e taxa de juros: o caso brasileiro

• Autor(a) principal: Rodrigues, Thiago
• Data de Publicação: 2009
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2788
• topic: Expectativas inflacionárias; Descumprimento da meta; Taxa de juros; Regime de metas de inflação; Economia; Inflação - Brasil; Taxas de juros - Brasil; Política monetária - Brasil

Brazil adopted an inflation targeting regime in 1999, after a four-year period of fixed exchange rate. Since then, the regime was marked by several episodes of unfulfillment of the target, what indicates that the regime seems to be defined as one in which the Central Bank pursues a 'fixed, but adjustable' target, that is, the rule is fixed for small shocks, but adjustments may occur for large shocks. The objective of this paper is to estimate the effect of such unfulfillment episodes over private agents’ inflation expectations. The results show that unfulfillments of the target have a significant impact over expectations, which, in turn, have great importance on the interest rate determination by the Central Bank.