Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/314 |
Resumo: | Globalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment. |
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Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture SectorAnálise dos Riscos em Projetos: Uma Aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo em uma Empresa do Setor MoveleiroDecisionProject managementInvestmentStrategyViabilityDecisãoGerenciamento de projetosInvestimentoEstratégiaViabilidadeGlobalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment.A globalização é um fenômeno que se faz presente na sociedade moderna e, com a sua expansão, é essencial que as empresas possam atender as constantes exigências do mercado, mas, para isso, é necessário tomar as melhores decisões e lidar com várias adversidades relacionadas à economia, concorrência, gestão, entre outros. O sucesso de projetos de investimento é determinado por um conjunto de técnicas que devem ser aplicadas para não comprometer a viabilidade do projeto. Quando essa viabilidade é cercada por incertezas, uma alternativa útil, para se conhecer os riscos, é a utilização do método de Monte Carlo. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo abordar os fatores de riscos, em uma empresa do setor moveleiro, utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo para analisar a viabilidade deste projeto. A metodologia adotada foi desenvolvida com base em um estudo de caso, mediante uma pesquisa exploratória. Os resultados mostraram que o projeto de investimento se faz viável, estimando um retorno entre o 4º e o 5º ano do projeto, além disso, o saldo, após os 10 anos de investimento, giraria em torno de R$ 4.128.211,63, um valor que representa 161,25% do investimento inicial.Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies2018-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articleapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/31410.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2018.v10i2.314Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 10 No. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 332-357Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 10 n. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 332-3572175-5825reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinstname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)instacron:FIAporhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/314/426Copyright (c) 2018 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAmorim, Fernando Rodrigues deAbreu, Pedro Henrique Camargo dePatino, Marco Tulio OspinaTerra, Leonardo Augusto Amaral2019-02-07T17:45:53Zoai:ojs.future.emnuvens.com.br:article/314Revistahttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/oai2175-58252175-5825opendoar:2019-02-07T17:45:53Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector Análise dos Riscos em Projetos: Uma Aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo em uma Empresa do Setor Moveleiro |
title |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector |
spellingShingle |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector Amorim, Fernando Rodrigues de Decision Project management Investment Strategy Viability Decisão Gerenciamento de projetos Investimento Estratégia Viabilidade |
title_short |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector |
title_full |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector |
title_fullStr |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector |
title_full_unstemmed |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector |
title_sort |
Project Risk Analysis: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method in a Company of the Furniture Sector |
author |
Amorim, Fernando Rodrigues de |
author_facet |
Amorim, Fernando Rodrigues de Abreu, Pedro Henrique Camargo de Patino, Marco Tulio Ospina Terra, Leonardo Augusto Amaral |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Abreu, Pedro Henrique Camargo de Patino, Marco Tulio Ospina Terra, Leonardo Augusto Amaral |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Amorim, Fernando Rodrigues de Abreu, Pedro Henrique Camargo de Patino, Marco Tulio Ospina Terra, Leonardo Augusto Amaral |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Decision Project management Investment Strategy Viability Decisão Gerenciamento de projetos Investimento Estratégia Viabilidade |
topic |
Decision Project management Investment Strategy Viability Decisão Gerenciamento de projetos Investimento Estratégia Viabilidade |
description |
Globalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-05-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/314 10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2018.v10i2.314 |
url |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/314 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2018.v10i2.314 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/314/426 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 10 No. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 332-357 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 10 n. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 332-357 2175-5825 reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies instname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) instacron:FIA |
instname_str |
Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
instacron_str |
FIA |
institution |
FIA |
reponame_str |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
collection |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1808843618062958592 |