Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178 |
Resumo: | Traditionally, the process of estimating the quantitative predictions of the strategic plan through the budget happens as from the deterministic data, together with analysis of factors of internal and external environments. As from the budget data decisions are made, often before the fact, which creates uncertainty as to the assertiveness of forecasts. Combined with the traditional preparation methods of corporate budget forecasts, this study presents an application of stochastic methods where the probabilism is presented as an alternative for the minimization of uncertainties related to the assertiveness of the estimates. It also demonstrates itself, as from a practical application, the use of the Monte Carlo method in the sales forecasting; at the same time it is tested the probability of these sales forecasting be materialized within certain intervals that meet the investors’ expectations, by using the limit central theorem and, finally, by using the absorbing Markov chain, it is demonstrated the overall performance of the system as from the funds input and output. The study was limited to a basic application of stochastic methods as from a hypothetical case which, however, allowed to conclude that both methods, together or separately, can minimize the effects of uncertainty in budget forecasts. |
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Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic MethodsQuantificação dos Planos Estratégicos Através do Orçamento Empresarial: uma Aplicação Prática com Métodos EstocásticosPlanning and control. Budget. Stochastic methods.Planejamento e controle. Orçamento. Métodos estocásticos.Traditionally, the process of estimating the quantitative predictions of the strategic plan through the budget happens as from the deterministic data, together with analysis of factors of internal and external environments. As from the budget data decisions are made, often before the fact, which creates uncertainty as to the assertiveness of forecasts. Combined with the traditional preparation methods of corporate budget forecasts, this study presents an application of stochastic methods where the probabilism is presented as an alternative for the minimization of uncertainties related to the assertiveness of the estimates. It also demonstrates itself, as from a practical application, the use of the Monte Carlo method in the sales forecasting; at the same time it is tested the probability of these sales forecasting be materialized within certain intervals that meet the investors’ expectations, by using the limit central theorem and, finally, by using the absorbing Markov chain, it is demonstrated the overall performance of the system as from the funds input and output. The study was limited to a basic application of stochastic methods as from a hypothetical case which, however, allowed to conclude that both methods, together or separately, can minimize the effects of uncertainty in budget forecasts.Tradicionalmente, o processo de estimação das previsões quantitativas dos planos estratégicos por meio do orçamento se dá a partir de dados determinísticos, aliados à análise de fatores do ambiente interno e externo. A partir dos dados orçamentários, decisões são tomadas, muitas vezes antes dos fatos, o que gera incerteza quanto à assertividade das previsões. Aliada a metodologias tradicionais de elaboração de previsões do orçamento empresarial, apresenta-se neste estudo uma aplicação de métodos estocásticos em que o probabilismo se demonstra como alternativa de minimização das incertezas quanto à assertividade das estimativas. Ainda, demonstra-se, a partir de uma aplicação prática, a utilização do método de Monte Carlo na previsão de vendas; ao mesmo tempo, testa-se a probabilidade de estas se concretizarem dentro de determinados intervalos que atendam à expectativa dos investidores, usando o teorema central do limite e, por fim, utilizando a cadeia de Markov absorvente, demonstra-se o desempenho geral do sistema a partir das entradas e saídas de recursos. Limitou-se o estudo a uma aplicação básica de métodos estocásticos a partir de um caso hipotético, que, no entanto, permitiu concluir que ambos os métodos, no conjunto ou isoladamente, podem minimizar os efeitos de incerteza nas previsões orçamentárias.Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies2014-12-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/17810.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2014.v6i2.178Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 6 No. 2 (2014): Future Studies Research Journal; 187-208Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 6 n. 2 (2014): Future Studies Research Journal; 187-2082175-5825reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinstname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)instacron:FIAengporhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178/287https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178/276Copyright (c) 2014 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessEyerkaufer, Marino LuizPossamai, Janaina PoffoConçalves, Mirian Buss2015-06-16T15:44:41Zoai:ojs.future.emnuvens.com.br:article/178Revistahttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/oai2175-58252175-5825opendoar:2015-06-16T15:44:41Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods Quantificação dos Planos Estratégicos Através do Orçamento Empresarial: uma Aplicação Prática com Métodos Estocásticos |
title |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods |
spellingShingle |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods Eyerkaufer, Marino Luiz Planning and control. Budget. Stochastic methods. Planejamento e controle. Orçamento. Métodos estocásticos. |
title_short |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods |
title_full |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods |
title_fullStr |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods |
title_sort |
Quantification of Strategic Plans Through the Business Budget: A Practical Application Using Stochastic Methods |
author |
Eyerkaufer, Marino Luiz |
author_facet |
Eyerkaufer, Marino Luiz Possamai, Janaina Poffo Conçalves, Mirian Buss |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Possamai, Janaina Poffo Conçalves, Mirian Buss |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Eyerkaufer, Marino Luiz Possamai, Janaina Poffo Conçalves, Mirian Buss |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Planning and control. Budget. Stochastic methods. Planejamento e controle. Orçamento. Métodos estocásticos. |
topic |
Planning and control. Budget. Stochastic methods. Planejamento e controle. Orçamento. Métodos estocásticos. |
description |
Traditionally, the process of estimating the quantitative predictions of the strategic plan through the budget happens as from the deterministic data, together with analysis of factors of internal and external environments. As from the budget data decisions are made, often before the fact, which creates uncertainty as to the assertiveness of forecasts. Combined with the traditional preparation methods of corporate budget forecasts, this study presents an application of stochastic methods where the probabilism is presented as an alternative for the minimization of uncertainties related to the assertiveness of the estimates. It also demonstrates itself, as from a practical application, the use of the Monte Carlo method in the sales forecasting; at the same time it is tested the probability of these sales forecasting be materialized within certain intervals that meet the investors’ expectations, by using the limit central theorem and, finally, by using the absorbing Markov chain, it is demonstrated the overall performance of the system as from the funds input and output. The study was limited to a basic application of stochastic methods as from a hypothetical case which, however, allowed to conclude that both methods, together or separately, can minimize the effects of uncertainty in budget forecasts. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-12-30 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178 10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2014.v6i2.178 |
url |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2014.v6i2.178 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178/287 https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/178/276 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2014 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2014 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 6 No. 2 (2014): Future Studies Research Journal; 187-208 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 6 n. 2 (2014): Future Studies Research Journal; 187-208 2175-5825 reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies instname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) instacron:FIA |
instname_str |
Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
instacron_str |
FIA |
institution |
FIA |
reponame_str |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
collection |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808843616947273728 |