The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 1992 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
Texto Completo: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02761992000300014 |
Resumo: | A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system. |
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
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The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cubainfluenza epidemic forecasting modelARi morbidity forecastingA large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde1992-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02761992000300014Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.87 n.3 1992reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruzinstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruzinstacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/S0074-02761992000300014info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAguirre,ArmandoGonzalez,Edilbertoeng2020-04-25T17:46:47Zhttp://www.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php0074-02761678-8060opendoar:null2020-04-26 02:04:42.812Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruztrue |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
title |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
spellingShingle |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba Aguirre,Armando influenza epidemic forecasting model ARi morbidity forecasting |
title_short |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
title_full |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
title_fullStr |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
title_full_unstemmed |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
title_sort |
The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba |
author |
Aguirre,Armando |
author_facet |
Aguirre,Armando Gonzalez,Edilberto |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Gonzalez,Edilberto |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Aguirre,Armando Gonzalez,Edilberto |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
influenza epidemic forecasting model ARi morbidity forecasting |
topic |
influenza epidemic forecasting model ARi morbidity forecasting |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system. |
description |
A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system. |
publishDate |
1992 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
1992-09-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02761992000300014 |
url |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02761992000300014 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0074-02761992000300014 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.87 n.3 1992 reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz instacron:FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
collection |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1669937658346864640 |