Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
Texto Completo: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762017000600419 |
Resumo: | BACKGROUND Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts. |
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Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy eliminationleprosyepidemiologyinfectious diseaseforecastMycobacterium leprae BACKGROUND Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde2017-06-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762017000600419Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.112 n.6 2017reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruzinstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruzinstacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/0074-02760160490info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessOdriozola,Elisa Petri deQuintana,Ana MaríaGonzález,VictorPasetto,Roque AntonioUtgés,María EugeniaBruzzone,Octavio AugustoArnaiz,María Rosaeng2020-04-25T17:52:36Zhttp://www.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php0074-02761678-8060opendoar:null2020-04-26 02:21:43.041Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruztrue |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
title |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
spellingShingle |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination Odriozola,Elisa Petri de leprosy epidemiology infectious disease forecast Mycobacterium leprae |
title_short |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
title_full |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
title_fullStr |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
title_sort |
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination |
author |
Odriozola,Elisa Petri de |
author_facet |
Odriozola,Elisa Petri de Quintana,Ana María González,Victor Pasetto,Roque Antonio Utgés,María Eugenia Bruzzone,Octavio Augusto Arnaiz,María Rosa |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Quintana,Ana María González,Victor Pasetto,Roque Antonio Utgés,María Eugenia Bruzzone,Octavio Augusto Arnaiz,María Rosa |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Odriozola,Elisa Petri de Quintana,Ana María González,Victor Pasetto,Roque Antonio Utgés,María Eugenia Bruzzone,Octavio Augusto Arnaiz,María Rosa |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
leprosy epidemiology infectious disease forecast Mycobacterium leprae |
topic |
leprosy epidemiology infectious disease forecast Mycobacterium leprae |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
BACKGROUND Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts. |
description |
BACKGROUND Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-06-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762017000600419 |
url |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762017000600419 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0074-02760160490 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.112 n.6 2017 reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz instacron:FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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