Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2005 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2005000500026 |
Resumo: | Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship. |
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Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicityHepatitis AMathematical ModelsPopulations DynamicsHeterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship.Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz2005-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2005000500026Cadernos de Saúde Pública v.21 n.5 2005reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/S0102-311X2005000500026info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGuimaraens,Mariana Alves deCodeço,Cláudia Torreseng2006-03-23T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0102-311X2005000500026Revistahttp://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/csp/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpcadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2006-03-23T00:00Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
title |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
spellingShingle |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity Guimaraens,Mariana Alves de Hepatitis A Mathematical Models Populations Dynamics |
title_short |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
title_full |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
title_fullStr |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
title_sort |
Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity |
author |
Guimaraens,Mariana Alves de |
author_facet |
Guimaraens,Mariana Alves de Codeço,Cláudia Torres |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Codeço,Cláudia Torres |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Guimaraens,Mariana Alves de Codeço,Cláudia Torres |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Hepatitis A Mathematical Models Populations Dynamics |
topic |
Hepatitis A Mathematical Models Populations Dynamics |
description |
Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship. |
publishDate |
2005 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2005-10-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2005000500026 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2005000500026 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0102-311X2005000500026 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública v.21 n.5 2005 reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
_version_ |
1754115724061704192 |