Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Bragantia |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019 |
Resumo: | Drought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity) in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values. |
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Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptationstandardized precipitation indexnormalityevapotranspirationDrought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity) in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values.Instituto Agronômico de Campinas2012-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019Bragantia v.71 n.1 2012reponame:Bragantiainstname:Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)instacron:IAC10.1590/S0006-87052012000100019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBlain,Gabriel Constantinoeng2012-05-11T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0006-87052012000100019Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/brag/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpbragantia@iac.sp.gov.br||bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br1678-44990006-8705opendoar:2012-05-11T00:00Bragantia - Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
title |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
spellingShingle |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation Blain,Gabriel Constantino standardized precipitation index normality evapotranspiration |
title_short |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
title_full |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
title_fullStr |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
title_sort |
Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation |
author |
Blain,Gabriel Constantino |
author_facet |
Blain,Gabriel Constantino |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Blain,Gabriel Constantino |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
standardized precipitation index normality evapotranspiration |
topic |
standardized precipitation index normality evapotranspiration |
description |
Drought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity) in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0006-87052012000100019 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Agronômico de Campinas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Agronômico de Campinas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Bragantia v.71 n.1 2012 reponame:Bragantia instname:Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC) instacron:IAC |
instname_str |
Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC) |
instacron_str |
IAC |
institution |
IAC |
reponame_str |
Bragantia |
collection |
Bragantia |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Bragantia - Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br||bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br |
_version_ |
1754193302536585216 |