Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Blain,Gabriel Constantino
Data de Publicação: 2012
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Bragantia
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019
Resumo: Drought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity) in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values.
id IAC-1_1c9de1c03dc194e9404e9ada262593bd
oai_identifier_str oai:scielo:S0006-87052012000100019
network_acronym_str IAC-1
network_name_str Bragantia
repository_id_str
spelling Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptationstandardized precipitation indexnormalityevapotranspirationDrought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity) in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values.Instituto Agronômico de Campinas2012-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019Bragantia v.71 n.1 2012reponame:Bragantiainstname:Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)instacron:IAC10.1590/S0006-87052012000100019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBlain,Gabriel Constantinoeng2012-05-11T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0006-87052012000100019Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/brag/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpbragantia@iac.sp.gov.br||bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br1678-44990006-8705opendoar:2012-05-11T00:00Bragantia - Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
title Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
spellingShingle Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
Blain,Gabriel Constantino
standardized precipitation index
normality
evapotranspiration
title_short Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
title_full Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
title_fullStr Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
title_full_unstemmed Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
title_sort Revisiting the probabilistic definition of drought: strengths, limitations and an agrometeorological adaptation
author Blain,Gabriel Constantino
author_facet Blain,Gabriel Constantino
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Blain,Gabriel Constantino
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv standardized precipitation index
normality
evapotranspiration
topic standardized precipitation index
normality
evapotranspiration
description Drought is a slow-moving hazard that occurs in virtually all countries of the world. In the light of this, several indices have been developed to improve the detection of drought's onset, as well as quantifying other features of this phenomenon. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used in order to characterize meteorological droughts. In addition, this index is largely used by Brazilian's agricultural institutions. In order to add important information to the drought literature, this review article described a general definition of drought, evaluated it from a statistical point of view, and also described the SPI strengths and limitations. An adaptation of the SPI that aims to develop a probability-based agricultural drought index was also presented. The results obtained herein, associated with several studies carried out throughout the world, demonstrated that the SPI is not an agricultural index. It is just a mathematical approach developed to transforming skewed distributions into the Gaussian form. If this standardization cannot be achieved, the use of this index becomes meaningless. Therefore, a normality test should be used in establishing a temporal lower limit for the SPI computations. It was also verified that for periods in which the probability associated with the zero precipitation value is close to 0.5, the SPI may erroneously indicate the end of an existing drought (or a decrease in its severity) in the presence of a decrease in the actual evapotranspiration values.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052012000100019
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/S0006-87052012000100019
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Agronômico de Campinas
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Agronômico de Campinas
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Bragantia v.71 n.1 2012
reponame:Bragantia
instname:Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)
instacron:IAC
instname_str Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)
instacron_str IAC
institution IAC
reponame_str Bragantia
collection Bragantia
repository.name.fl_str_mv Bragantia - Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br||bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br
_version_ 1754193302536585216