Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12207/701 |
Resumo: | The aim of this paper is to test the ability of neural network approaches to hindcast the spring standardized precipitation index on a 6-month time scale (SPI6) in Portugal, based on winter large-scale climatic indices. For this purpose, the linkage of the spring SPI time series with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) was investigated by means of maps of the correlation coefficient for the period from October 1910 to September 2004. The results indicate that the winter NAO is a good predictor for the SPI6 of the spring (SPI6 finishing in April, May and June, SPI6April, SPI6May and SPI6June, respectively) for the northern, central and southern regions of Portugal. The winter SST1 (area of the Mediterranean Sea) must only be considered for the northern region, and the winter SST3 (area of the North Atlantic between Iberia and North America) only for the southern region. Spatial maps of predictive SPI6 for April, May and June were created and validated. The neural models explained more than 81% of the total variance for the SPI6April and SPI6May and more than 64% of the total variance for the SPI6June. Probability maps were also developed considering the values predicted by the neural methods for the spring months and all drought categories (moderate, severe and extreme). These maps indicating the probability of droughts can provide valuable support for the integrated planning and management of water resources throughout Portugal. |
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Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in PortugalArtificial neural networksHindcastingStandardized precipitation indexClimatic indicesNAOThe aim of this paper is to test the ability of neural network approaches to hindcast the spring standardized precipitation index on a 6-month time scale (SPI6) in Portugal, based on winter large-scale climatic indices. For this purpose, the linkage of the spring SPI time series with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) was investigated by means of maps of the correlation coefficient for the period from October 1910 to September 2004. The results indicate that the winter NAO is a good predictor for the SPI6 of the spring (SPI6 finishing in April, May and June, SPI6April, SPI6May and SPI6June, respectively) for the northern, central and southern regions of Portugal. The winter SST1 (area of the Mediterranean Sea) must only be considered for the northern region, and the winter SST3 (area of the North Atlantic between Iberia and North America) only for the southern region. Spatial maps of predictive SPI6 for April, May and June were created and validated. The neural models explained more than 81% of the total variance for the SPI6April and SPI6May and more than 64% of the total variance for the SPI6June. Probability maps were also developed considering the values predicted by the neural methods for the spring months and all drought categories (moderate, severe and extreme). These maps indicating the probability of droughts can provide valuable support for the integrated planning and management of water resources throughout Portugal.Wiley2014-02-25T16:40:28Z2014-01-30T00:00:00Z2014-01-30T00:00:00Z2014-01-30T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12207/701engmetadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSantos, João FilipePortela, Maria ManuelaPulido-Calvo, Inmaculadareponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-06-23T07:46:37Zoai:repositorio.ipbeja.pt:20.500.12207/701Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T14:58:24.400769Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
title |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
spellingShingle |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal Santos, João Filipe Artificial neural networks Hindcasting Standardized precipitation index Climatic indices NAO |
title_short |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
title_full |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
title_fullStr |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
title_sort |
Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal |
author |
Santos, João Filipe |
author_facet |
Santos, João Filipe Portela, Maria Manuela Pulido-Calvo, Inmaculada |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Portela, Maria Manuela Pulido-Calvo, Inmaculada |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, João Filipe Portela, Maria Manuela Pulido-Calvo, Inmaculada |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Artificial neural networks Hindcasting Standardized precipitation index Climatic indices NAO |
topic |
Artificial neural networks Hindcasting Standardized precipitation index Climatic indices NAO |
description |
The aim of this paper is to test the ability of neural network approaches to hindcast the spring standardized precipitation index on a 6-month time scale (SPI6) in Portugal, based on winter large-scale climatic indices. For this purpose, the linkage of the spring SPI time series with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) was investigated by means of maps of the correlation coefficient for the period from October 1910 to September 2004. The results indicate that the winter NAO is a good predictor for the SPI6 of the spring (SPI6 finishing in April, May and June, SPI6April, SPI6May and SPI6June, respectively) for the northern, central and southern regions of Portugal. The winter SST1 (area of the Mediterranean Sea) must only be considered for the northern region, and the winter SST3 (area of the North Atlantic between Iberia and North America) only for the southern region. Spatial maps of predictive SPI6 for April, May and June were created and validated. The neural models explained more than 81% of the total variance for the SPI6April and SPI6May and more than 64% of the total variance for the SPI6June. Probability maps were also developed considering the values predicted by the neural methods for the spring months and all drought categories (moderate, severe and extreme). These maps indicating the probability of droughts can provide valuable support for the integrated planning and management of water resources throughout Portugal. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-02-25T16:40:28Z 2014-01-30T00:00:00Z 2014-01-30T00:00:00Z 2014-01-30T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12207/701 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12207/701 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1799129857246887936 |