Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/article/view/184982 |
Resumo: | COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control. |
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Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding processCOVID-19Spatial analysisEpidemiologyMinas GeraisCOVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control.Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo2021-03-24info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/article/view/18498210.1590/s1678-9946202163021Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo; Vol. 63 (2021); e21Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo; Vol. 63 (2021); e21Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo; v. 63 (2021); e211678-99460036-4665reponame:Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Pauloinstname:Instituto de Medicina Tropical (IMT)instacron:IMTenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/article/view/184982/171150Copyright (c) 2021 Wendel Coura-Vital, Diogo Tavares Cardoso, Fabricio Thomaz de Oliveira Ker, Fernanda do Carmo Magalhães, Juliana Maria Trindade Bezerra, Ana Maria Viegas, Maria Helena Franco Morais, Leonardo Soares Bastos, Ilka Afonso Reis, Mariângela Carneiro, David Soeiro Barbosahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCoura-Vital, Wendel Cardoso, Diogo Tavares Ker, Fabricio Thomaz de Oliveira Magalhães, Fernanda do Carmo Bezerra, Juliana Maria Trindade Viegas, Ana Maria Morais, Maria Helena Franco Bastos, Leonardo Soares Reis, Ilka Afonso Carneiro, Mariângela Barbosa, David Soeiro 2022-05-16T13:44:35Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/184982Revistahttp://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/indexPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/oai||revimtsp@usp.br1678-99460036-4665opendoar:2022-12-13T16:52:57.171361Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo - Instituto de Medicina Tropical (IMT)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
title |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
spellingShingle |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process Coura-Vital, Wendel COVID-19 Spatial analysis Epidemiology Minas Gerais |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
title_sort |
Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process |
author |
Coura-Vital, Wendel |
author_facet |
Coura-Vital, Wendel Cardoso, Diogo Tavares Ker, Fabricio Thomaz de Oliveira Magalhães, Fernanda do Carmo Bezerra, Juliana Maria Trindade Viegas, Ana Maria Morais, Maria Helena Franco Bastos, Leonardo Soares Reis, Ilka Afonso Carneiro, Mariângela Barbosa, David Soeiro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cardoso, Diogo Tavares Ker, Fabricio Thomaz de Oliveira Magalhães, Fernanda do Carmo Bezerra, Juliana Maria Trindade Viegas, Ana Maria Morais, Maria Helena Franco Bastos, Leonardo Soares Reis, Ilka Afonso Carneiro, Mariângela Barbosa, David Soeiro |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Coura-Vital, Wendel Cardoso, Diogo Tavares Ker, Fabricio Thomaz de Oliveira Magalhães, Fernanda do Carmo Bezerra, Juliana Maria Trindade Viegas, Ana Maria Morais, Maria Helena Franco Bastos, Leonardo Soares Reis, Ilka Afonso Carneiro, Mariângela Barbosa, David Soeiro |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Spatial analysis Epidemiology Minas Gerais |
topic |
COVID-19 Spatial analysis Epidemiology Minas Gerais |
description |
COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-03-24 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/article/view/184982 10.1590/s1678-9946202163021 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/article/view/184982 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/s1678-9946202163021 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rimtsp/article/view/184982/171150 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo; Vol. 63 (2021); e21 Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo; Vol. 63 (2021); e21 Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo; v. 63 (2021); e21 1678-9946 0036-4665 reponame:Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo instname:Instituto de Medicina Tropical (IMT) instacron:IMT |
instname_str |
Instituto de Medicina Tropical (IMT) |
instacron_str |
IMT |
institution |
IMT |
reponame_str |
Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo |
collection |
Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo - Instituto de Medicina Tropical (IMT) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revimtsp@usp.br |
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1798951653152391168 |