Study of the demand-supply for radiopharmaceuticals in IPEN

• Autor(a) principal: MUTARELLI, RITA de C.
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: LIMA, ANA C. de S., SABUNDJIAN, GAIANE, INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
• Tipo de documento: Artigo de conferência
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do IPEN
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.ipen.br/handle/123456789/30575
• topic: computerized simulation; dynamical systems; interactions; investment; market; personnel; production; radiopharmaceuticals; supply and demand; v codes; brazilian cnen

Radiopharmaceuticals are unique medicinal formulations containing radioisotopes and are used in nuclear medicine for diagnosis and/or therapy for chronic diseases such as cancer, alzheimer and cardiac disorders. The increase in the incidence of these diseases in the Brazilian population and the trend of increasing demand for radiopharmaceuticals motivated the elaboration of this work from a system dynamics perspective. The aim of this paper is to present a System Dynamic Model for simulating the interaction between demand, capacity, workforce and production of radiopharmaceuticals produced by IPEN. The validity of this model is verified by running in Vensim PLE software using historical data. The model was based on the generic structure of commodity markets and main variables were considered to represent the market polices. The preliminary model presented was able to capture the expected behavior of the industry of radiopharmaceuticals. Two alternative scenarios were developed, one to analyze the impacts of investment in infrastructure of IPEN and the other to investigate the workforce investment. As result, the model performed well in representing the behavior of the market. In addition, scenario tests showed that investment in infrastructure and workforce investment have a significant impact in the dynamic of the system.