Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio
Data de Publicação: 2016
Tipo de documento: Relatório
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006
Resumo: OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.
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spelling Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predictedImpact Factorbibliometricsfuture trends OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.Mavera Edições Técnicas e Científicas Ltda2016-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/reportinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006MedicalExpress v.3 n.5 2016reponame:MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online)instname:Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-MEinstacron:METC10.5935/MedicalExpress.2016.05.06info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRocha-e-Silva,Mauricioeng2016-11-04T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2358-04292016000500006Revistahttp://www.medicalexpress.net.brhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||medicalexpress@me.net.br2358-04292318-8111opendoar:2016-11-04T00:00MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) - Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-MEfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
title Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
spellingShingle Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio
Impact Factor
bibliometrics
future trends
title_short Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
title_full Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
title_fullStr Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
title_full_unstemmed Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
title_sort Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
author Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio
author_facet Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Impact Factor
bibliometrics
future trends
topic Impact Factor
bibliometrics
future trends
description OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-10-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/report
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format report
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.5935/MedicalExpress.2016.05.06
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Mavera Edições Técnicas e Científicas Ltda
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Mavera Edições Técnicas e Científicas Ltda
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv MedicalExpress v.3 n.5 2016
reponame:MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online)
instname:Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-ME
instacron:METC
instname_str Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-ME
instacron_str METC
institution METC
reponame_str MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online)
collection MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) - Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-ME
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||medicalexpress@me.net.br
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