Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Relatório |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006 |
Resumo: | OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018. |
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Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predictedImpact Factorbibliometricsfuture trends OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018.Mavera Edições Técnicas e Científicas Ltda2016-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/reportinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006MedicalExpress v.3 n.5 2016reponame:MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online)instname:Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-MEinstacron:METC10.5935/MedicalExpress.2016.05.06info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRocha-e-Silva,Mauricioeng2016-11-04T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S2358-04292016000500006Revistahttp://www.medicalexpress.net.brhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||medicalexpress@me.net.br2358-04292318-8111opendoar:2016-11-04T00:00MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) - Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-MEfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
title |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
spellingShingle |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio Impact Factor bibliometrics future trends |
title_short |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
title_full |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
title_fullStr |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
title_full_unstemmed |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
title_sort |
Journal Impact Factors for the year-after the next can be objectively predicted |
author |
Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio |
author_facet |
Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rocha-e-Silva,Mauricio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Impact Factor bibliometrics future trends |
topic |
Impact Factor bibliometrics future trends |
description |
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends of Journal Impact factor variation can be objectively predicted for the year after next. METHOD: Curves for citations/document have been constructed for articles published in the two years previous to the current year (YEAR-1 and YEAR-2) and their citations in the current (unfinished year). Separate curves were constructed for YEAR-1 and YEAR-2. A parameter named INDEX R has been defined. INDEX R was calculated for a randomly selected sample of 100 journals with Impact Factors in the 1 - 3 range. RESULTS: INDEX R was found to distribute in a quasi-normal manner, with a borderline adherence to the Gauss distribution (0.10 > p > 0.05). A mean value of 0.60 ± 0.19 was observed. CONCLUSION: As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that INDEX R may indicate a trend for the Impact Factor to occur for the year-after (2017), to be published in the summer of 2018. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-10-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/report |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
report |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2358-04292016000500006 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.5935/MedicalExpress.2016.05.06 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Mavera Edições Técnicas e Científicas Ltda |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Mavera Edições Técnicas e Científicas Ltda |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
MedicalExpress v.3 n.5 2016 reponame:MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) instname:Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-ME instacron:METC |
instname_str |
Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-ME |
instacron_str |
METC |
institution |
METC |
reponame_str |
MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) |
collection |
MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
MedicalExpress (São Paulo. Online) - Mavera Edições Científicas e Técnicas Ltda-ME |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||medicalexpress@me.net.br |
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1754734597074059264 |