IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Napoleone, Rafael Andretto
Data de Publicação: 2014
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da METODISTA
Texto Completo: http://tede.metodista.br/jspui/handle/tede/79
Resumo: The market reaction related to the changes in the benchmark interest rate is relevant for the whole economy. The knowledge of the relation between monetary policy and interest rates are extremely important, since monetary surprises, in other words, mistakes in the market regarding changes Selic rate target prediction, that can affect interest rates from different maturity or maturities, directly impacting the Financial Administration. The aim of this study was to analyze the variation of the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates (ETTJ) monetary surprises when checked at the time of the decision of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on the Selic rate target. For that reason, a quantitative descriptive study, which considered 88 regular meetings of the Copom in the period from January, 2004 to December, 2013 was developed. Monetary surprises were identified through two distinct ways. The first one considered rates of DI1 corresponding to the last trade on the floor of the Copom meeting s date, and the rate of the first transaction done in the next trading session. Thus 11 monetary surprises were identified. The second form averaged rates observed in the same contracts and occasions mentioned above, and thus, 10 monetary surprises were identified. For the analysis of the relation between variations of the yield curve and monetary surprises were considered maturities of 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 and 24 months. As a result it was observed that monetary surprises and changes in the yield curve are directly proportional, moving on in the same direction for the two distinct forms of monetary surprises identified in this study. Furthermore, it was used in the analysis of unanimity in the decision of the Copom to test their informational content, and it was observed, as a result, a smaller variation of ETTJ when the Copom decision was unanimous. In summary, it is meant that the results of this study are in line those presented by other authors, it is possible to prove the correlation between the variation of the yield curve and monetary surprises as well as verify that the magnitude of the variations decreases throughout ETTJ, a fact that may be related to the transparency of monetary policy and national experience in term of the inflation targeting system.
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spelling Campos, Anderson Luis SaberCPF:56983258975Cappellozza, AlexandreCPF:18021276827http://lattes.cnpq.br/8358857348226421Marçal, Emerson FernandesCPF:15463698521CPF:21863770801Napoleone, Rafael Andretto2016-08-02T21:42:39Z2015-01-262014-09-24http://tede.metodista.br/jspui/handle/tede/79The market reaction related to the changes in the benchmark interest rate is relevant for the whole economy. The knowledge of the relation between monetary policy and interest rates are extremely important, since monetary surprises, in other words, mistakes in the market regarding changes Selic rate target prediction, that can affect interest rates from different maturity or maturities, directly impacting the Financial Administration. The aim of this study was to analyze the variation of the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates (ETTJ) monetary surprises when checked at the time of the decision of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on the Selic rate target. For that reason, a quantitative descriptive study, which considered 88 regular meetings of the Copom in the period from January, 2004 to December, 2013 was developed. Monetary surprises were identified through two distinct ways. The first one considered rates of DI1 corresponding to the last trade on the floor of the Copom meeting s date, and the rate of the first transaction done in the next trading session. Thus 11 monetary surprises were identified. The second form averaged rates observed in the same contracts and occasions mentioned above, and thus, 10 monetary surprises were identified. For the analysis of the relation between variations of the yield curve and monetary surprises were considered maturities of 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 and 24 months. As a result it was observed that monetary surprises and changes in the yield curve are directly proportional, moving on in the same direction for the two distinct forms of monetary surprises identified in this study. Furthermore, it was used in the analysis of unanimity in the decision of the Copom to test their informational content, and it was observed, as a result, a smaller variation of ETTJ when the Copom decision was unanimous. In summary, it is meant that the results of this study are in line those presented by other authors, it is possible to prove the correlation between the variation of the yield curve and monetary surprises as well as verify that the magnitude of the variations decreases throughout ETTJ, a fact that may be related to the transparency of monetary policy and national experience in term of the inflation targeting system.A reação dos mercados às alterações na taxa básica de juros é relevante para toda a economia. O entendimento da relação entre a política monetária e as taxas de juros é de extrema importância, uma vez que surpresas monetárias, ou seja, os erros de previsão do mercado a respeito das alterações da meta da Taxa Selic, podem afetar as taxas de juros de diferentes maturidades ou vencimentos, impactando diretamente a Administração Financeira. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a variação da Estrutura a Termo da Taxa de Juros (ETTJ) quando verificadas surpresas monetárias na ocasião da decisão do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) a respeito da meta da Taxa Selic. Para isso, foi desenvolvido um estudo descritivo quantitativo, que considerou as 88 reuniões ordinárias do Copom realizadas no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2013. As surpresas monetárias foram identificadas através de duas formas distintas. Na primeira forma foram consideradas as taxas do contrato de DI1 referente ao último negócio realizado no pregão da data da reunião do Copom, e a taxa do primeiro negócio realizado no pregão seguinte. Desta maneira foram identificadas 11 surpresas monetárias. Na segunda forma foram consideradas as taxas médias verificadas nos mesmos contratos e ocasiões citados anteriormente, sendo assim identificadas 10 surpresas monetárias. Já para a análise da relação entre as variações da ETTJ e as surpresas monetárias foram considerados os vencimentos de 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 e 24 meses. Como resultado foi possível observar que as surpresas monetárias e as variações na ETTJ são diretamente proporcionais, movendo-se na mesma direção, para as duas formas distintas de surpresas monetárias identificadas neste estudo. Além disso, foi empregada nas análises a questão da unanimidade na decisão do Copom, com o objetivo testar o seu conteúdo informacional, e observou-se como resultado uma menor variação da ETTJ em ocasiões em que a decisão do Copom foi unânime. Em resumo, entende-se que os resultados encontrados no presente estudo estão em linha aos apresentados por outros autores, sendo possível comprovar a correlação existente entre as variações da ETTJ e as surpresas monetárias, bem como verificar que a magnitude das variações diminui ao longo da ETTJ, fato este que pode ser relacionado à transparência da política monetária nacional e à experiência na vigência do sistema de metas para a inflação.Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T21:42:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaelNapoleone.pdf: 398672 bytes, checksum: 205d94e713a895763ec8dd06adf428f4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-09-24application/pdfhttp://tede.metodista.br/jspui/retrieve/1566/RafaelNapoleone.pdf.jpgporUniversidade Metodista de São PauloPÓS GRADUAÇÃO EM ADMINISTRAÇÃOUMESPBRGestão de organizaçõesEstrutura a Termo da Taxa de JurosPolítica MonetáriaTaxa SelicSurpresas MonetáriasTerm Structure of Interest RatesMonetary PolicySelic RateMonetary SurprisesCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAOIDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROSIdentification and monetary surprises and its impacts on the term structure of interest ratesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da METODISTAinstname:Universidade Metodista de São Paulo (METODISTA)instacron:METODISTATHUMBNAILRafaelNapoleone.pdf.jpgRafaelNapoleone.pdf.jpgimage/jpeg1943http://tede.metodista.br/jspui/bitstream/tede/79/2/RafaelNapoleone.pdf.jpgcc73c4c239a4c332d642ba1e7c7a9fb2MD52ORIGINALRafaelNapoleone.pdfapplication/pdf398672http://tede.metodista.br/jspui/bitstream/tede/79/1/RafaelNapoleone.pdf205d94e713a895763ec8dd06adf428f4MD51tede/792016-08-09 15:15:44.0oai:tahbit.umesp.edu.dti:tede/79Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://tede.metodista.br/jspui/http://tede.metodista.br/oai/requestbiblioteca@metodista.br||erick.roberto@metodista.bropendoar:2016-08-09T18:15:44Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da METODISTA - Universidade Metodista de São Paulo (METODISTA)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Identification and monetary surprises and its impacts on the term structure of interest rates
title IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
spellingShingle IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
Napoleone, Rafael Andretto
Estrutura a Termo da Taxa de Juros
Política Monetária
Taxa Selic
Surpresas Monetárias
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Monetary Policy
Selic Rate
Monetary Surprises
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO
title_short IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
title_full IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
title_fullStr IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
title_full_unstemmed IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
title_sort IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS
author Napoleone, Rafael Andretto
author_facet Napoleone, Rafael Andretto
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Campos, Anderson Luis Saber
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv CPF:56983258975
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Cappellozza, Alexandre
dc.contributor.referee1ID.fl_str_mv CPF:18021276827
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/8358857348226421
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
dc.contributor.referee2ID.fl_str_mv CPF:15463698521
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv CPF:21863770801
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Napoleone, Rafael Andretto
contributor_str_mv Campos, Anderson Luis Saber
Cappellozza, Alexandre
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Estrutura a Termo da Taxa de Juros
Política Monetária
Taxa Selic
Surpresas Monetárias
topic Estrutura a Termo da Taxa de Juros
Política Monetária
Taxa Selic
Surpresas Monetárias
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Monetary Policy
Selic Rate
Monetary Surprises
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Term Structure of Interest Rates
Monetary Policy
Selic Rate
Monetary Surprises
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO
description The market reaction related to the changes in the benchmark interest rate is relevant for the whole economy. The knowledge of the relation between monetary policy and interest rates are extremely important, since monetary surprises, in other words, mistakes in the market regarding changes Selic rate target prediction, that can affect interest rates from different maturity or maturities, directly impacting the Financial Administration. The aim of this study was to analyze the variation of the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates (ETTJ) monetary surprises when checked at the time of the decision of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on the Selic rate target. For that reason, a quantitative descriptive study, which considered 88 regular meetings of the Copom in the period from January, 2004 to December, 2013 was developed. Monetary surprises were identified through two distinct ways. The first one considered rates of DI1 corresponding to the last trade on the floor of the Copom meeting s date, and the rate of the first transaction done in the next trading session. Thus 11 monetary surprises were identified. The second form averaged rates observed in the same contracts and occasions mentioned above, and thus, 10 monetary surprises were identified. For the analysis of the relation between variations of the yield curve and monetary surprises were considered maturities of 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 and 24 months. As a result it was observed that monetary surprises and changes in the yield curve are directly proportional, moving on in the same direction for the two distinct forms of monetary surprises identified in this study. Furthermore, it was used in the analysis of unanimity in the decision of the Copom to test their informational content, and it was observed, as a result, a smaller variation of ETTJ when the Copom decision was unanimous. In summary, it is meant that the results of this study are in line those presented by other authors, it is possible to prove the correlation between the variation of the yield curve and monetary surprises as well as verify that the magnitude of the variations decreases throughout ETTJ, a fact that may be related to the transparency of monetary policy and national experience in term of the inflation targeting system.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2014-09-24
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