Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Costa, Ana Cristina
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Santos, João A., Pinto, Joaquim G.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
Resumo: Costa, A. C., Santos, J. A., & Pinto, J. G. (2012). Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal. Theoretical And Applied Climatology, 108(1-2), 217-234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
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spelling Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in PortugalAtmospheric ScienceSDG 13 - Climate ActionCosta, A. C., Santos, J. A., & Pinto, J. G. (2012). Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal. Theoretical And Applied Climatology, 108(1-2), 217-234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling-Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent-past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071-2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)RUNCosta, Ana CristinaSantos, João A.Pinto, Joaquim G.2019-07-26T22:39:56Z2012-01-012012-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article18application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3eng0177-798XPURE: 12358824http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84859100185&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:34:53Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/76645Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:35:41.320199Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
title Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
spellingShingle Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
Costa, Ana Cristina
Atmospheric Science
SDG 13 - Climate Action
title_short Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
title_full Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
title_fullStr Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
title_sort Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal
author Costa, Ana Cristina
author_facet Costa, Ana Cristina
Santos, João A.
Pinto, Joaquim G.
author_role author
author2 Santos, João A.
Pinto, Joaquim G.
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Costa, Ana Cristina
Santos, João A.
Pinto, Joaquim G.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Atmospheric Science
SDG 13 - Climate Action
topic Atmospheric Science
SDG 13 - Climate Action
description Costa, A. C., Santos, J. A., & Pinto, J. G. (2012). Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal. Theoretical And Applied Climatology, 108(1-2), 217-234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-01-01
2012-01-01T00:00:00Z
2019-07-26T22:39:56Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 0177-798X
PURE: 12358824
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84859100185&partnerID=8YFLogxK
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 18
application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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