Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10071/19141 |
Resumo: | During the first decade of the 21st Century, social and economic concerns (such as budget deficit and a fragile economy) led the Portuguese Government to publish unemployment rates, by pair of course and Higher Education Institution (HEI) in order to reassess funding to assign to HEIs based on their course demand, and enable candidates to make a more informed choice. Such measure may have influenced the closure of some courses and the increase in vacancies of others, which is why this study emerges. The strength index is our dependent variable, resulting from the ratio between the number of 1st option candidates and the number of vacancies, for a given course associated with an HEI's organic unit. We measured the determinants of the demand for higher education courses and the impact of disclosing the unemployment information, for the demand adjustment for courses in Portugal, from 2005 until 2016, using panel data. The results revealed a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the strength index. All other determinants (GDP, population density and a dummy variable, built from the percentage of candidates from the district of origin with most candidates per course) had the expected signs. The robustness exercises showed that most signs are robust when dividing by degree, NUTSII region, candidates and graduates’ gender, and fields of study. We concluded that the influence of the unemployment rate on course choice and HEI is consensual and that it may have an impact on the demand for each course and on the respective supply by HEIs. |
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Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all coursesSupplyDemandHigher educationUnemployment.OfertaProcuraEnsino superiorDesempregoDuring the first decade of the 21st Century, social and economic concerns (such as budget deficit and a fragile economy) led the Portuguese Government to publish unemployment rates, by pair of course and Higher Education Institution (HEI) in order to reassess funding to assign to HEIs based on their course demand, and enable candidates to make a more informed choice. Such measure may have influenced the closure of some courses and the increase in vacancies of others, which is why this study emerges. The strength index is our dependent variable, resulting from the ratio between the number of 1st option candidates and the number of vacancies, for a given course associated with an HEI's organic unit. We measured the determinants of the demand for higher education courses and the impact of disclosing the unemployment information, for the demand adjustment for courses in Portugal, from 2005 until 2016, using panel data. The results revealed a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the strength index. All other determinants (GDP, population density and a dummy variable, built from the percentage of candidates from the district of origin with most candidates per course) had the expected signs. The robustness exercises showed that most signs are robust when dividing by degree, NUTSII region, candidates and graduates’ gender, and fields of study. We concluded that the influence of the unemployment rate on course choice and HEI is consensual and that it may have an impact on the demand for each course and on the respective supply by HEIs.Na primeira década do século XXI, preocupações sociais e económicas (como o défice orçamental e uma economia frágil) levaram o Governo Português a publicar as taxas de desemprego por curso e Instituição de Ensino Superior (IES), com o intuito de reavaliar o financiamento a atribuir às IES, baseado na procura de cursos, e possibilitar aos candidatos uma escolha mais informada. Esta medida pode ter influenciado alguns cursos, aumentando vagas ou extinguindo-os, razão pela qual surge este estudo. O Índice de Força é a variável dependente, resultante do rácio entre o número de candidatos em primeira opção e o número de vagas por curso associado a unidade orgânica de uma IES. Mediu-se o impacto da divulgação da taxa no índice de força dos pares cursos/unidades orgânicas e possível ajuste da procura de cursos em Portugal, de 2005 a 2016. Analisámos os principais determinantes da oferta e procura de cursos e da taxa de desemprego por curso e IES, utilizando dados de painel. Os resultados revelaram uma correlação negativa entre taxa de desemprego e índice de força. As restantes determinantes (PIB, densidade populacional e variável dummy, construída a partir da percentagem de candidatos do distrito de origem com maior número de candidatos por curso) apresentaram os sinais esperados. Os exercícios de robustez revelaram maioritariamente os sinais apresentados na estimação original, por grau, região NUTSII, género dos candidatos e diplomados e por áreas de ensino. Concluímos que a influência da taxa de desemprego é consensual e que pode ter um impacto na procura de cada curso e na respetiva oferta pelas IES.2022-11-15T00:00:00Z2019-11-15T00:00:00Z2019-11-152019-09info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/19141TID:202318508engFarófia, Maria João Toscanoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:44:20Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/19141Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:21:02.126546Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
title |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
spellingShingle |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses Farófia, Maria João Toscano Supply Demand Higher education Unemployment. Oferta Procura Ensino superior Desemprego |
title_short |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
title_full |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
title_fullStr |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
title_sort |
Higher education and unemployment: analysis of the demand and supply determinants amongst all courses |
author |
Farófia, Maria João Toscano |
author_facet |
Farófia, Maria João Toscano |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Farófia, Maria João Toscano |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Supply Demand Higher education Unemployment. Oferta Procura Ensino superior Desemprego |
topic |
Supply Demand Higher education Unemployment. Oferta Procura Ensino superior Desemprego |
description |
During the first decade of the 21st Century, social and economic concerns (such as budget deficit and a fragile economy) led the Portuguese Government to publish unemployment rates, by pair of course and Higher Education Institution (HEI) in order to reassess funding to assign to HEIs based on their course demand, and enable candidates to make a more informed choice. Such measure may have influenced the closure of some courses and the increase in vacancies of others, which is why this study emerges. The strength index is our dependent variable, resulting from the ratio between the number of 1st option candidates and the number of vacancies, for a given course associated with an HEI's organic unit. We measured the determinants of the demand for higher education courses and the impact of disclosing the unemployment information, for the demand adjustment for courses in Portugal, from 2005 until 2016, using panel data. The results revealed a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the strength index. All other determinants (GDP, population density and a dummy variable, built from the percentage of candidates from the district of origin with most candidates per course) had the expected signs. The robustness exercises showed that most signs are robust when dividing by degree, NUTSII region, candidates and graduates’ gender, and fields of study. We concluded that the influence of the unemployment rate on course choice and HEI is consensual and that it may have an impact on the demand for each course and on the respective supply by HEIs. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-11-15T00:00:00Z 2019-11-15 2019-09 2022-11-15T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/19141 TID:202318508 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/19141 |
identifier_str_mv |
TID:202318508 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799134770866683904 |