Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101292 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020159 |
Resumo: | Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have di erential e ects on di erent subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period. |
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Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?climate changeextreme temperaturesdistributed lag non-linear model (DLNM)mortalityelderlyprojectionsWRF modelPortugalSeveral studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have di erential e ects on di erent subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period.2020info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/101292http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101292https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020159eng2073-4433Rodrigues, MónicaSantana, PaulaRocha, Alfredoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-08-19T20:39:26Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/101292Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:18:30.938686Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
title |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
spellingShingle |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? Rodrigues, Mónica climate change extreme temperatures distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) mortality elderly projections WRF model Portugal |
title_short |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
title_full |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
title_fullStr |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
title_sort |
Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? |
author |
Rodrigues, Mónica |
author_facet |
Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
climate change extreme temperatures distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) mortality elderly projections WRF model Portugal |
topic |
climate change extreme temperatures distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) mortality elderly projections WRF model Portugal |
description |
Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have di erential e ects on di erent subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101292 http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101292 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020159 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101292 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020159 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2073-4433 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799134079726125056 |