Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Rodrigues, Mónica
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Santana, Paula, Rocha, Alfredo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120735
Resumo: Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, 0.62% for 2045–2065 and 0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.
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spelling Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approachclimate changemortalitytemperature extremesdistributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM)projectionsWRF modelPortugalClimate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, 0.62% for 2045–2065 and 0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.2019info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120735eng2073-4433Rodrigues, MónicaSantana, PaulaRocha, Alfredoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-09-07T14:05:03Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/101602Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:18:45.591898Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
spellingShingle Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
Rodrigues, Mónica
climate change
mortality
temperature extremes
distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM)
projections
WRF model
Portugal
title_short Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_full Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_fullStr Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_full_unstemmed Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
title_sort Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
author Rodrigues, Mónica
author_facet Rodrigues, Mónica
Santana, Paula
Rocha, Alfredo
author_role author
author2 Santana, Paula
Rocha, Alfredo
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Rodrigues, Mónica
Santana, Paula
Rocha, Alfredo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv climate change
mortality
temperature extremes
distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM)
projections
WRF model
Portugal
topic climate change
mortality
temperature extremes
distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM)
projections
WRF model
Portugal
description Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, 0.62% for 2045–2065 and 0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120735
url http://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120735
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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instacron:RCAAP
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