Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Aidt, Toke S.
Data de Publicação: 2007
Outros Autores: Veiga, Francisco José, Veiga, Linda Gonçalves
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/7187
Resumo: The authors acknowledge helpful comments from Eric Dubois, Martin Gassebner, Luís Aguiar-Conraria and participants in a session of the 2007 Silvaplana Workshop on Political Economy.
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spelling Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approachVoting and popularity functionsOpportunismRational political business cyclesLocal governmentSystem estimationPortugalThe authors acknowledge helpful comments from Eric Dubois, Martin Gassebner, Luís Aguiar-Conraria and participants in a session of the 2007 Silvaplana Workshop on Political Economy.The literature on political business cycles suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections. The literature on vote and popularity functions suggests that economic conditions systematically affect election outcomes. This paper integrates these two strands of literature. We use Rogo. (1990)’s model of the rational political business cycle to derive the two-way relationship between the win-margin of the incumbent politician and the size of the opportunistic distortion of fiscal policy. This relationship is estimated, for a panel of 275 Portuguese municipalities (from 1979 to 2001), as a system of simultaneous equations (by GMM). The results clearly support the theoretical predictions: (1) opportunism pays o., leading to a larger win-margin for the incumbent; (2) incumbents behave more opportunistically when they expect a close election race.Francisco Veiga and Linda Veiga wish to thank the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) for funding the project “Interactions between economics and politics in Portugal” under research grant POCI/EGE/58641/2004, of the program POCI 2010 (funded by FCT and FEDER).Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)Universidade do MinhoAidt, Toke S.Veiga, Francisco JoséVeiga, Linda Gonçalves20072007-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/7187engNIPE Working Paper series; 24info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:38:32Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/7187Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:35:00.499284Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
title Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
spellingShingle Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
Aidt, Toke S.
Voting and popularity functions
Opportunism
Rational political business cycles
Local government
System estimation
Portugal
title_short Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
title_full Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
title_fullStr Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
title_full_unstemmed Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
title_sort Election results and opportunistic policies : an integrated approach
author Aidt, Toke S.
author_facet Aidt, Toke S.
Veiga, Francisco José
Veiga, Linda Gonçalves
author_role author
author2 Veiga, Francisco José
Veiga, Linda Gonçalves
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Aidt, Toke S.
Veiga, Francisco José
Veiga, Linda Gonçalves
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Voting and popularity functions
Opportunism
Rational political business cycles
Local government
System estimation
Portugal
topic Voting and popularity functions
Opportunism
Rational political business cycles
Local government
System estimation
Portugal
description The authors acknowledge helpful comments from Eric Dubois, Martin Gassebner, Luís Aguiar-Conraria and participants in a session of the 2007 Silvaplana Workshop on Political Economy.
publishDate 2007
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2007
2007-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/7187
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/7187
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv NIPE Working Paper series; 24
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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