Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/44492 |
Resumo: | Political budget cycles (PBCs) have been well documented in the literature, albeit not for all circumstances. However, no work has been done on the impact of economic growth on the magnitude of PBCs. The theoretical model argues that a government has an incentive to increase fiscal manipulations when a recession is expected to hit and curtail re-election chances; this amounts to countercyclical policy for opportunistic rather than Keynesian motives. Very robust evidence for this behaviour is found in Portuguese municipalities; in election years, budget deficits go up even more and significantly so, when a recession is expected. |
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Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessionsPolitical budget cyclesKeynesian countercyclical policiesPolitical opportunismLocal governmentsPortugalCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoPolitical budget cycles (PBCs) have been well documented in the literature, albeit not for all circumstances. However, no work has been done on the impact of economic growth on the magnitude of PBCs. The theoretical model argues that a government has an incentive to increase fiscal manipulations when a recession is expected to hit and curtail re-election chances; this amounts to countercyclical policy for opportunistic rather than Keynesian motives. Very robust evidence for this behaviour is found in Portuguese municipalities; in election years, budget deficits go up even more and significantly so, when a recession is expected.Fundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaCompete 2020Portugal 2020FEDERUniversidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)Universidade do MinhoBohn, FrankVeiga, Francisco José2017-012017-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/44492enghttp://www.nipe.eeg.uminho.pt/Uploads/WP_2017/NIPE%20WP_01_2017.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T11:54:32Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/44492Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:44:01.714659Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
title |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
spellingShingle |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions Bohn, Frank Political budget cycles Keynesian countercyclical policies Political opportunism Local governments Portugal Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
title_short |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
title_full |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
title_fullStr |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
title_sort |
Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions |
author |
Bohn, Frank |
author_facet |
Bohn, Frank Veiga, Francisco José |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Veiga, Francisco José |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Bohn, Frank Veiga, Francisco José |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Political budget cycles Keynesian countercyclical policies Political opportunism Local governments Portugal Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
topic |
Political budget cycles Keynesian countercyclical policies Political opportunism Local governments Portugal Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
description |
Political budget cycles (PBCs) have been well documented in the literature, albeit not for all circumstances. However, no work has been done on the impact of economic growth on the magnitude of PBCs. The theoretical model argues that a government has an incentive to increase fiscal manipulations when a recession is expected to hit and curtail re-election chances; this amounts to countercyclical policy for opportunistic rather than Keynesian motives. Very robust evidence for this behaviour is found in Portuguese municipalities; in election years, budget deficits go up even more and significantly so, when a recession is expected. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-01 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/44492 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/44492 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
http://www.nipe.eeg.uminho.pt/Uploads/WP_2017/NIPE%20WP_01_2017.pdf |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799132188359262208 |